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Public and Private Learning from Prices, Strategic Substitutability and Complementarity, and Equilibrium Multiplicity

  • Carolina Manzano
  • Xavier Vives

We study a general static noisy rational expectations model, where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust.

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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 3137.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3137
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  1. Vives, Xavier, 1990. "Nash equilibrium with strategic complementarities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 305-321.
  2. Christophe Chamley, 2008. "On "Acquisition of Information in Financial Markets"," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1081-1084.
  3. Goldstein, Itay & Ozdenoren, Emre & Yuan, Kathy, 2010. "Learning and Complementarities: Implications for Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Vives, Xavier, 1995. "Short-Term Investment and the Informational Efficiency of the Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 125-60.
  5. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-72.
  6. Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, . "Information Acquisition in Financial Markets," CRSP working papers 360, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  7. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  8. Manuel Amador & Pierre Olivier Weill, 2008. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," 2008 Meeting Papers 390, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Federico Echenique, 1999. "Comparative Statics by Adaptative Dynamics and the Correspondence Principle," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 2099, Department of Economics - dECON.
  10. Laura Veldkamp, 2004. "Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 4, Econometric Society.
  11. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2006. "Information Markets and the Comovement of Asset Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(3), pages 823-845.
  12. Jean-Pierre Danthine & Serge Moresi, 1990. "Volatility, Information and Noise Trading," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0010, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
  13. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. " Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-98, December.
  14. Duffie Darrell & Rahi Rohit, 1995. "Financial Market Innovation and Security Design: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 1-42, February.
  15. Christian Hellwig & Laura Veldkamp, 2006. "Knowing what others Know: Coordination motives in information acquisition," 2006 Meeting Papers 361, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
  17. Vives, X., 1990. "How Fast Do Rational Agents Learn?," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 135-90, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  18. Guesnerie, R., 1999. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," DELTA Working Papers 1999-06, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  19. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-57, May.
  20. Blume, L. E. & Bray, M. M. & Easley, D., 1982. "Introduction to the stability of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 313-317, April.
  21. Chamley, Christophe, 2007. "Complementarities in information acquisition with short-term trades," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(4), December.
  22. Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, 2007. "Information acquisition in financial markets: a correction," Working Paper Series WP-07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  23. Itay Goldstein & Emre Ozdenoren & Kathy Yuan, 2011. "Learning and Complementarities in Speculative Attacks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(1), pages 263-292.
  24. Medrano, Luis Angel & Vives, Xavier, 2002. "Regulating Insider Trading when Investment Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. McCafferty, Stephen & Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Problems of Existence and Uniqueness in Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1313-17, July.
  26. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
  27. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:383-391 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Jayant Vivek Ganguli & Liyan Yang, 2009. "Complementarities, Multiplicity, and Supply Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 90-115, 03.
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