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Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek

  • Giovanni Cespa

    ()

    (Queen Mary University of London, Università di Salerno, CSEF and CEPR)

  • Xavier Vives

    (IESE Business School and UPF)

We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing equilibrium model. We look at the bias of prices as estimators of fundamental value in relation to traders' average expectations and note that prices are more (less) biased than average expectations if and only if traders over- (under-) rely on public information with respect to optimal statistical weights. We find that prices are biased in relation to average expectations whenever traders speculate on short-run price move- ments. In a market with long term traders, over-reliance on public information obtains if noise trade increments are correlated enough and/or there is low enough residual uncertainty in the payoff. This defines a “Keynesian” region; the complementary region is “Hayekian” in that prices are less biased than average expectations in the estimation of fundamental value. The standard case of no residual uncertainty and noise trading following a random walk is on the frontier of the two regions. With short-term traders there typically are two equilibria, with the stable (unstable) one displaying over- (under-) reliance on public information.

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Paper provided by Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy in its series CSEF Working Papers with number 191.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
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Publication status: Published in Review of Economic Studies (2012) 79 (2): 539-580.
Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:191
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  1. Peter Kondor, 2004. "The more we know, the less we agree: public announcements and higher-order expectations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24645, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Hua He & Jiang Wang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 5010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Vives, Xavier, 1997. "Learning from Others: A Welfare Analysis," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-200, August.
  4. David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2008. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 171-207, Spring.
  5. Vives, X., 1993. "Short-Term Investment and the Informational Efficiency of the Market," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 207.93, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  6. Luis Angel Medrano & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Regulating Insider Trading When Investment Matters," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 199-277.
  7. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
  8. Péter Kondor, 2005. "Rational Trader Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp533, Financial Markets Group.
  9. Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2011. "An institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," FMG Discussion Papers dp666, Financial Markets Group.
  10. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Higher Order Expectations, Illiquidity, and Short-term Trading," CSEF Working Papers 276, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  11. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  12. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752.
  13. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2008. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 837-866, 08.
  14. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  15. Giovanni Cespa & Thierry Foucault, 2008. "Insiders-Outsiders, Transparency and the Value of the Ticker," Working Papers 628, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  16. Kristoffer Nimark, 2007. "Dynamic Higher Order Expectations," 2007 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
  18. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2001. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," NBER Working Papers 8312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Giovanni Cespa, 2000. "Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity," Economics Working Papers 520, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2002.
  20. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2010. "Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity," IESE Research Papers D/874, IESE Business School.
  21. Biais, Bruno & Bossaerts, Peter, 1998. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume in a Beauty Contest," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 307-40, April.
  22. Sanford Grossman, 1989. "The Informational Role of Prices," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572141, June.
  23. Xavier Vives, 2007. "Information and Learning in Markets," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001520, UCLA Department of Economics.
  24. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Spiegel, Matthew, 1991. "Insiders, Outsiders, and Market Breakdowns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 255-82.
  25. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February.
  26. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  27. Cho, Jin-Wan & Krishnan, Murugappa, 2000. "Prices as Aggregators of Private Information: Evidence from S&P 500 Futures Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(01), pages 111-126, March.
  28. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-57, May.
  29. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  30. Jayant Vivek Ganguli & Liyan Yang, 2009. "Complementarities, Multiplicity, and Supply Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 90-115, 03.
  31. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2009. "Aggregation of Information and Beliefs: Asset Pricing Lessons from Prediction Markets," Discussion Papers 09-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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