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Dynamic trading and asset prices: Keynes vs. Hayek

  • Cespa, Giovanni

    (Queen Mary University of London)

  • Vives, Xavier


    (IESE Business School)

We investigate the dynamic of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing equilibrium model. We look at the bias of prices as estimators of fundamental value in relation to traders' average expectations and note that prices are more (less) biased than average expectations if and only if traders over- (under-) rely on public information with respect to optimal statistical weights. We find that prices are biased in relation to average expectations whenever traders speculate on short-run price movements. In a market with long traders, over-reliance on public information obtains if noise trader increments are correlated enough and/or there is low enough residual uncertainty in the payoff. This defines a "Keynesian" region; the complementary region is "Hayekian" in that prices are less biased than average expectations in the estimation of fundamental value. The standard case of no residual uncertainty and noise trading following a random walk is on the frontier of the two regions. With short-term traders there typically are two equilibria, with the stable (unstable) one displaying over (under-) reliance on public information.

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Paper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/716.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 09 Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0716
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  2. Sanford Grossman, 1989. "The Informational Role of Prices," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262572141, December.
  3. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Higher Order Expectations, Illiquidity, and Short-term Trading," CSEF Working Papers 276, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  4. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752.
  5. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2010. "Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity," Working Papers 2072/151544, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  6. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Spiegel, Matthew, 1991. "Insiders, Outsiders, and Market Breakdowns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 255-82.
  7. David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Finance 0207017, EconWPA.
  8. Giovanni Cespa, 2000. "Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity," Economics Working Papers 520, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2002.
  9. Hua He & Jiang Wang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 5010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  11. Philippe BACCHETTA & Eric VAN WINCOOP, 2004. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," FAME Research Paper Series rp110, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  12. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Bruno Biais & Peter Bossaerts, 1998. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume in a Beauty Contest," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 307-340.
  14. Dimitri Vayanos & Paul Woolley, 2013. "An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(5), pages 1087-1145.
  15. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  16. Xavier Vives, 1994. "Short-term Investment and the Informational Efficiency of the Market," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0034, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ..
  17. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
  18. Luis Angel Medrano & Xavier Vives, 2004. "Regulating Insider Trading When Investment Matters," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 199-277.
  19. Kandel, Eugene & Pearson, Neil D, 1995. "Differential Interpretation of Public Signals and Trade in Speculative Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 831-72, August.
  20. Cho, Jin-Wan & Krishnan, Murugappa, 2000. "Prices as Aggregators of Private Information: Evidence from S&P 500 Futures Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(01), pages 111-126, March.
  21. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  22. Kristoffer Nimark, 2007. "Dynamic higher order expectations," Economics Working Papers 1118, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2011.
  23. Jayant Vivek Ganguli & Liyan Yang, 2009. "Complementarities, Multiplicity, and Supply Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 90-115, 03.
  24. Vives, Xavier, 1997. "Learning from Others: A Welfare Analysis," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-200, August.
  25. Peter Kondor, 2004. "Rational trader risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24646, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  26. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
  27. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-57, May.
  28. Peter Kondor, 2004. "The more we know, the less we agree: public announcements and higher-order expectations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24645, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  29. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2009. "Aggregation of Information and Beliefs: Asset Pricing Lessons from Prediction Markets," Discussion Papers 09-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  30. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February.
  31. Xavier Vives, 2007. "Information and Learning in Markets," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001520, UCLA Department of Economics.
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