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Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek

  • Cespa, Giovanni
  • Vives, Xavier

We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing equilibrium model. We show that prices are farther away from (closer to) fundamentals compared with average expectations if and only if traders over- (under-) rely on public information with respect to optimal statistical weights. Both phenomena, in turn, occur whenever traders speculate on short-run price movements. For a given, positive level of residual payoff uncertainty, over-reliance on public information obtains if noise trade displays low persistence. This defines a "Keynesian" region; the complementary region is "Hayekian" in that prices are systematically closer to fundamentals than average expectations. The standard case of no residual uncertainty and noise trading following a random walk is on the frontier of the two regions and identifies the set of deep parameters for which traders abide by Keynes' dictum of concentrating on an asset "long term prospects and those only." The analysis explains accommodation and trend chasing strategies as well as momentum and reversal.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 7506.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7506
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  1. Cho, Jin-Wan & Krishnan, Murugappa, 2000. "Prices as Aggregators of Private Information: Evidence from S&P 500 Futures Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(01), pages 111-126, March.
  2. Medrano, Luis Angel & Vives, Xavier, 2002. "Regulating Insider Trading when Investment Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  27. David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2008. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 6(2), pages 171-207, Spring.
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