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Higher order expectations, illiquidity, and short-term trading

  • Cespa, Giovanni

    (IESE Business School)

  • Vives, Xavier

    ()

    (IESE Business School)

We propose a theory that jointly accounts for an asset illiquidity and for the asset price potential over-reliance on public information. We argue that, when trading frequencies differ across traders, asset prices reflect investors' Higher Order Expectations (HOEs) about the two factors that influence the aggregate demand: fundamentals information and liquidity trades. We show that it is precisely when asset prices are driven by investors' HOEs about fundamentals that they over-rely on public information, the market displays high illiquidity, and low volume of informational trading; conversely, when HOEs about fundamentals are subdued, prices under-rely on public information, the market hovers in a high liquidity state, and the volume of informational trading is high. Over-reliance on public information results from investors' under-reaction to their private signals which, in turn, dampens uncertainty reduction over liquidation prices, favoring an increase in price risk and illiquidity. Therefore, a highly illiquid market implies higher expected returns from contrarian strategies. Equivalently, illiquidity arises as a byproduct of the lack of participation of informed investors in their capacity as liquidity suppliers, a feature that appears to capture some aspects of the recent crisis.

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File URL: http://www.iese.edu/research/pdfs/DI-0915-E.pdf
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Paper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/915.

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Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: 03 Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0915
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IESE Business School, Av Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, SPAIN

Web page: http://www.iese.edu/

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  1. Giovanni Cespa, 2000. "Short-term investment and equilibrium multiplicity," Economics Working Papers 520, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2002.
  2. Cespa, Giovanni & Vives, Xavier, 2007. "Dynamic trading and asset prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," IESE Research Papers D/716, IESE Business School.
  3. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  4. Vives, Xavier, 1995. "Short-Term Investment and the Informational Efficiency of the Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 125-60.
  5. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Liquidity and Asset Prices," MPRA Paper 24768, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
  7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2008. "Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 837-866, 08.
  8. Bruno Biais & Peter Bossaerts, 1998. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume in a Beauty Contest," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 307-340.
  9. Dow, James & Gorton, Gary, 1994. " Arbitrage Chains," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 819-49, July.
  10. Sanford J. Grossman & Merton H. Miller, 1988. "Liquidity and Market Structure," NBER Working Papers 2641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. David Easley & Robert F. Engle & Maureen O'Hara & Liuren Wu, 2002. "Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades," Finance 0207017, EconWPA.
  12. Acharya, Viral V & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2003. "Asset Pricing with Liquidity Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 3749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Kristoffer Nimark, 2007. "Dynamic Higher Order Expectations," 2007 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  14. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
  15. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2009. "Aggregation of Information and Beliefs: Asset Pricing Lessons from Prediction Markets," Discussion Papers 09-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  16. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  17. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-57, May.
  18. Franklin Allen & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Beauty Contests and Iterated Expectations in Asset Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 719-752.
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