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Equilibrium Asset Pricing and Portofolio Choice Under Asymmetric Information

  • Biais, Bruno
  • Bossaerts, Peter
  • Spatt, Chester

We analyze theoretically and empirically the implications of information asymmetry for equilibrium asset pricing and portfolio choice. In our partially revealing dynamic rational expectations equilibrium, portfolio separation fails, and indexing is not optimal. We show how uninformed investors should structure their portfolios, using the information contained in prices to cope with winner's curse problems. We implement empirically this price- contingent portfolio strategy. Consistent with our theory, the strategy outperforms economically and statistically the index. While momentum can arise in the model, in the data, the momentum strategy does not outperform the price-contingent strategy, as predicted by the theory. The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

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Paper provided by Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) in its series TSE Working Papers with number 09-018.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Publication status: Published in The Review of Financial Studies, vol.�23, n°4, 2010, p.�1503-1543.
Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:21923
Contact details of provider: Phone: (+33) 5 61 12 86 23
Web page: http://www.tse-fr.eu/

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  1. Stapleton, R C & Subrahmanyam, Marti G, 1978. "A Multiperiod Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1077-96, September.
  2. Spiegel, Matthew, 1998. "Stock Price Volatility in a Multiple Security Overlapping Generations Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 419-47.
  3. Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Rational Trend Followers and Contrarians in Excessively Volatile, Correlated Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm267, Yale School of Management.
  4. DeMarzo, Peter & Skiadas, Costis, 1998. "Aggregation, Determinacy, and Informational Efficiency for a Class of Economies with Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-152, May.
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  6. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1995. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997. " International Portfolio Investment Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-80, December.
  8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  9. Wang, Jiang, 1993. "A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 249-82, April.
  10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  11. Michael Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez, Jr. & Bill Marcum, 2005. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns in Real Time," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 469-500, March.
  12. Chan, Louis K C & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Lakonishok, Josef, 1996. " Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1681-1713, December.
  13. Zhou, Chunsheng, 1998. "Dynamic portfolio choice and asset pricing with differential information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1027-1051, May.
  14. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
  15. Maureen O'Hara, 2003. "Presidential Address: Liquidity and Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1335-1354, 08.
  16. Laura Veldkamp & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Information Acquisition and Portfolio Underdiversification," 2005 Meeting Papers 77, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  17. Mayers, David, 1974. "Portfolio theory, job choice and the equilibrium structure of expected wages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 23-42, May.
  18. Bossaerts, Peter, 1995. "The Econometrics of Learning in Financial Markets," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 151-189, February.
  19. Lintner, John, 1969. "The Aggregation of Investor's Diverse Judgments and Preferences in Purely Competitive Security Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(04), pages 347-400, December.
  20. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March.
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