IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedrwp/14-05.html

Asset Trading and Valuation with Uncertain Exposure

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo
  • Per Krusell
  • Martin Schneider

Abstract

This paper considers an asset market where investors have private information not only about asset payoffs, but also about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor. In equilibrium, rational investors disagree about asset payoffs: Those with higher exposure to the risk factor are (endogenously) more optimistic about claims on the risk factor. Thus, information asymmetry limits risk sharing and trading volumes. Moreover, uncertainty about exposure amplifies the effect of aggregate exposure on asset prices, and can thereby help explain the excess volatility of prices and the predictability of excess returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Per Krusell & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Asset Trading and Valuation with Uncertain Exposure," Working Paper 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:14-05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/working_papers/2014/pdf/wp14-05.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Sanford J. Grossman & Jiang Wang, 1993. "Trading Volume and Serial Correlation in Stock Returns," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 905-939.
    2. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
    3. Jayant Vivek Ganguli & Liyan Yang, 2009. "Complementarities, Multiplicity, and Supply Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 90-115, March.
    4. Pietra, Tito & Siconolfi, Paolo, 2008. "Trade and revelation of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 132-164, January.
    5. Spiegel, Matthew, 1998. "Stock Price Volatility in a Multiple Security Overlapping Generations Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 419-447.
    6. DeMarzo, Peter & Skiadas, Costis, 1998. "Aggregation, Determinacy, and Informational Efficiency for a Class of Economies with Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-152, May.
    7. Jouini, Elyes & Napp, Clotilde, 2006. "Heterogeneous beliefs and asset pricing in discrete time: An analysis of pessimism and doubt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1233-1260, July.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    9. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
    10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    11. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2007. "Consensus Consumer and Intertemporal Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(4), pages 1149-1174.
    12. Veronica Guerrieri & Robert Shimer, 2014. "Dynamic Adverse Selection: A Theory of Illiquidity, Fire Sales, and Flight to Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 1875-1908, July.
    13. Gao, Feng & Song, Fengming & Wang, Jun, 2013. "Rational expectations equilibrium with uncertain proportion of informed traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 387-413.
    14. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    15. Ausubel, Lawrence M., 1990. "Partially-revealing rational expectations equilibrium in a competitive economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 93-126, February.
    16. Clotilde Napp & Elyès Jouini, 2006. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Pricing in Discrete Time," Post-Print halshs-00151536, HAL.
    17. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 346-369.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/78 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:dau:papers:123456789/341 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
    21. Joël Peress, 2004. "Wealth, Information Acquisition, and Portfolio Choice," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 879-914.
    22. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory H. Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2007. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 1-30.
    23. Kristoffer Nimark, 2007. "Dynamic Higher Order Expectations," 2007 Meeting Papers 542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Barlevy, Gadi & Veronesi, Pietro, 2003. "Rational panics and stock market crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 234-263, June.
    25. Kristoffer Nimark, 2009. "Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates," Economics Working Papers 1194, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2012.
    26. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-657, May.
    27. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-1244, September.
    28. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Banerjee, Snehal & Green, Brett, 2015. "Signal or noise? Uncertainty and learning about whether other traders are informed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(2), pages 398-423.
    2. Lou, Youcheng & Parsa, Sahar & Ray, Debraj & Li, Duan & Wang, Shouyang, 2019. "Information aggregation in a financial market with general signal structure," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 594-624.
    3. Ouzan, Samuel, 2020. "Loss aversion and market crashes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 70-86.
    4. H. Henry Cao & Hui Ou-Yang, 2009. "Differences of Opinion of Public Information and Speculative Trading in Stocks and Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 299-335, January.
    5. Paul Glasserman & Harry Mamaysky & Yiwen Shen, 2024. "Dynamic Information Regimes in Financial Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(9), pages 6069-6092, September.
    6. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 3390, CESifo.
    7. Mäkinen, Taneli & Ohl, Björn, 2015. "Information acquisition and learning from prices over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 585-633.
    8. Pavan, Alessandro & Vives, Xavier, 2015. "Information, Coordination, and Market Frictions: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 407-426.
    9. Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Is Noise Trading Cancelled Out by Aggregation?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1047-1059, July.
    10. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2015. "The Beauty Contest and Short-Term Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2099-2154, October.
    11. Dindo, Pietro, 2019. "Survival in speculative markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1-43.
    12. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    13. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2012. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 79(2), pages 539-580.
    14. Marmora, Paul & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2018. "Learning about noise," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 209-224.
    15. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Eduardo Dávila & Cecilia Parlatore, 2021. "Trading Costs and Informational Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1471-1539, June.
    17. García, Diego & Urošević, Branko, 2013. "Noise and aggregation of information in large markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 526-549.
    18. Yu, Edison G., 2018. "Dynamic market participation and endogenous information aggregation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 491-517.
    19. Diego García & Branko Urosevic, 2004. "Noise and aggregation of information in large markets," Economics Working Papers 785, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    20. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2008. "Are More Risk-Averse Agents More Optimistic? Insights from a Simple Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," Post-Print halshs-00176630, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:14-05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Pascasio (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbrius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.