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Dynamic Adverse Selection: A Theory of Illiquidity, Fire Sales, and Flight to Quality

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  • Veronica Guerrieri
  • Robert Shimer

Abstract

We develop a dynamic equilibrium model of asset markets affected by adverse selection. There exists a unique equilibrium where better assets trade at higher prices but in less liquid markets. Sellers of high-quality assets can separate because they are more willing to accept a lower trading probability. As a result, the emergence of adverse selection generates a drop in liquidity. It may also lead to a decline in the price-dividend ratio--a fire sale--and a flight to quality. Subsidies to purchasing assets may be Pareto improving and can reverse the fire sale and flight to quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Veronica Guerrieri & Robert Shimer, 2012. "Dynamic Adverse Selection: A Theory of Illiquidity, Fire Sales, and Flight to Quality," NBER Working Papers 17876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17876 Note: AP EFG
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2195-2230, October.
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    7. Camargo, Braz & Lester, Benjamin, 2014. "Trading dynamics in decentralized markets with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 534-568.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Shimer & Veronica Guerrieri, 2012. "Markets with Multidimensional Private Information," 2012 Meeting Papers 1192, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Shi, Shouyong, 2016. "Customer relationship and sales," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 483-516.
    3. Taneli Mäkinen & Francesco Palazzo, 2017. "The double bind of asymmetric information in over-the-counter markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Sebastian Edwards & Francis A. Longstaff & Alvaro Garcia Marin, 2015. "The U.S. Debt Restructuring of 1933: Consequences and Lessons," NBER Working Papers 21694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Soren Radde & Wei Cui, 2015. "Search-Based Endogenous Illiquidity and the Macroeconomy," 2015 Meeting Papers 546, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Arseneau, David M. & Rappoport, David & Vardoulakis, Alexandros, 2015. "Secondary Market Liquidity and the Optimal Capital Structure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-31, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Christophe Pérignon & David ThesmarAuthor-Name: Guillaume Vuillemey, 2017. "Wholesale funding dry-ups," ESRB Working Paper Series 49, European Systemic Risk Board.
    8. Camargo, Braz & Lester, Benjamin, 2014. "Trading dynamics in decentralized markets with adverse selection," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 534-568.
    9. Yiting Li & Guillaume Rocheteau & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2012. "Liquidity and the Threat of Fraudulent Assets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(5), pages 000.
    10. Berentsen, Aleksander & McBride, Michael & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2017. "Limelight on dark markets: Theory and experimental evidence on liquidity and information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-90.
    11. repec:eee:jetheo:v:169:y:2017:i:c:p:365-399 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fuchs, William & Green, Brett & Papanikolaou, Dimitris, 2016. "Adverse selection, slow-moving capital, and misallocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 286-308.
    13. Michael J. Fishman & Jonathan A. Parker, 2015. "Valuation, Adverse Selection, and Market Collapses," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(9), pages 2575-2607.
    14. Benjamin Lester & Guillaume Rocheteau & Pierre‐Olivier Weill, 2015. "Competing for Order Flow in OTC Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S2), pages 77-126, June.
    15. Halket, Jonathan R & Pignatti, Matteo, 2012. "Housing tenure choices with private information," Economics Discussion Papers 8961, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    16. S. Mohammad R. Davoodalhosseini, 2014. "Constrained Efficiency with Search and Information Frictions," 2014 Papers pda658, Job Market Papers.
    17. Stephens, Eric & Thompson, James R., 2017. "Information asymmetry and risk transfer markets," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 88-99.
    18. Jess Benhabib & Feng Dong & Pengfei Wang, 2014. "Adverse Selection and Self-fulfilling Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 20642, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Wei Cui & Sören Radde, 2014. "Search-Based Endogenous Illiquidity and the Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1367, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Pavan, Alessandro & Vives, Xavier, 2015. "Information, Coordination, and Market Frictions: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 158(PB), pages 407-426.
    21. Haoxiang Zhu, 2014. "Do Dark Pools Harm Price Discovery?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 747-789.
    22. Vincent Maurin, 2016. "Liquidity Fluctuations in Over the Counter Markets," 2016 Meeting Papers 218, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Bassetto, Marco & Benzoni, Luca & Serrao, Trevor, 2016. "The Interplay Between Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Shocks," Working Paper Series WP-2016-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    24. Bental, Benjamin & Demougin, Dominique, 2016. "Privatizing profits and socializing losses with smoothly operating capital markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 179-194.
    25. Halket, Jonathan & Pignatti Morano di Custoza, Matteo, 2015. "Homeownership and the scarcity of rentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 107-123.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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