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Stock Market Volatility in a Heterogeneous Information Economy

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  • Grundy, Bruce D.
  • Kim, Youngsoo

Abstract

The informational role of prices contributes positively to their variability. In a noisy rational expectations equilibrium, traders rationally respond to price changes by revising their estimates of other traders' private signals and hence their own expectations of future dividends. The resultant shifts in traders' demands amplify any supply shock-induced price changes. We develop an infinite horizon noisy rational expectations model and calibrate, simulate, and test it using U.S. stock market data. The price variability in a heterogeneous information economy is shown to be 20% to 46% higher than in an otherwise equivalent economy in which all signals are publicly announced.

Suggested Citation

  • Grundy, Bruce D. & Kim, Youngsoo, 2002. "Stock Market Volatility in a Heterogeneous Information Economy," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 1-27, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:37:y:2002:i:01:p:1-27_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2006. "An empirical evaluation of the overconfidence hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 2489-2515, September.
    2. Peter Boswijk & Cars H. Hommes & Sebastiano Manzan, 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-052/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Zhu, Yingzi & Zhou, Guofu, 2009. "Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 519-544, June.
    4. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1938-1970.
    5. Kim, Youngsoo & Lee, Bong Soo, 2007. "Limited participation and the closed-end fund discount," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 381-399, February.
    6. Bruno Biais & Peter Bossaerts & Chester Spatt, "undated". "Equilibrium Asset Pricing Under Heterogeneous Information," GSIA Working Papers 2003-E42, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    7. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01011701, HAL.
    8. Bruno Biais & Peter Bossaerts & Chester Spatt, "undated". "Equilibrium Asset Pricing Under Heterogeneous Information," GSIA Working Papers 2003-E42, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    9. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00983051, HAL.
    10. Fong, Wai Mun & Yong, Lawrence H. M., 2005. "Chasing trends: recursive moving average trading rules and internet stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 43-76.
    11. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01215947, HAL.
    12. Masahiro Watanabe, 2002. "Price Volatility and Investor Behavior in an Overlapping Generations Model with Information Asymmetry," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2636, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jul 2002.
    13. Liu, Yi-Fang & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Chao & Vitting Andersen, Jørgen & Xu, Hai-Chuan, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 204-215.
    14. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & J{o}rgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2013. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Papers 1311.4274, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2014.
    15. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14031, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    16. Makarov, Igor & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2012. "Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 941-966.

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