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On the Predictability of Stock Returns in Real Time

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Cooper

    (Purdue University)

  • Roberto C. Gutierrez, Jr.

    (University of Oregon)

  • Bill Marcum

    (Wake Forest University)

Abstract

Researchers have documented an abundance of evidence that stock returns are predictable ex post facto. In this study, we address the ex ante predictability of the cross section of stock returns by investigating whether a real-time investor could have used book-to-market equity, firm size, and one-year lagged returns to generate portfolio profits during the 197497 period. We develop variations on common recursive out-of-sample methods and demonstrate a marked difference between ex post and ex ante predictability, suggesting that the current notion of predictability in the literature is exaggerated.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Cooper & Roberto C. Gutierrez, Jr. & Bill Marcum, 2005. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns in Real Time," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 469-500, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:78:y:2005:i:2:p:469-500
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    2. Kathleen Fuller & Bonnie Ness & Robert Ness, 2010. "Is information risk priced for NASDAQ-listed stocks?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 301-312, April.
    3. Puneet Handa, 2006. "Does Stock Return Predictability Imply Improved Asset Allocation and Performance? Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market (1954–2002)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2423-2468, September.
    4. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 341-381.
    5. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    6. Marshall, Ben R. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2010. "The Other January Effect: Evidence against market efficiency?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2413-2424, October.
    7. Michael Cooper & Huseyin Gulen, 2006. "Is Time-Series-Based Predictability Evident in Real Time?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1263-1292, May.
    8. Silva, A. Christian & Prange, Richard E., 2007. "Virtual volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 507-516.
    9. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
    10. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2007. "CAPM over the long run: 1926-2001," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-40, January.
    11. Yufeng Han, 2010. "On the Economic Value of Return Predictability," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 1-33, May.
    12. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 274-290.
    13. Hui Guo, 2009. "Data Revisions And Out-Of-Sample Stock Return Predictability," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 81-97, January.
    14. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
    15. Anna Obizhaeva, 2007. "Liquidity Estimates and Selection Bias," Working Papers w0225, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    16. Anton Bekkerman, 2011. "Time-varying hedge ratios in linked agricultural markets," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 179-200, August.
    17. Pierdzioch, Christian & Schertler, Andrea, 2008. "Investing in European stock markets for high-technology firms," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 400-415.
    18. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
    19. Steven Liew Woon Choy & Jayaraman Munusamy & Shankar Chelliah & Ally Mandari, 2011. "Effects of Financial Distress Condition on the Company Performance: A Malaysian Perspective," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 85-99, August.

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