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Rational learning for risk-averse investors by conditioning on behavioral choices

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  • Michele Costola

    () (Department of Economics, University Of Venice C� Foscari)

  • Massimiliano Caporin

    () (Department of Economics and Management, University Of Padova)

Abstract

We present a rational learner agent, which considers the information coming from a behavioral counterpart during the allocation process. The learner agent adopts a herding behaviour by conditioning her choice on the selection of the portfolio's constituents. The considered framework has therefore two types of agents with two different utility functions: the rational agent with a hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility function and the other one with a general behavioral utility function. We use the concept of performance measure related to utility functions to define agents' preferences: the higher the measure, the higher the expected utility of a given asset. The rational learner agent updates her information in a Bayesian manner similarly to the Black-Litterman model, which makes use of a weighting factor in blending the two components. We support our methodological framework with an empirical analysis including all the assets present in the NASDAQ and NYSE stock exchange from September 1977 to December 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Costola & Massimiliano Caporin, 2015. "Rational learning for risk-averse investors by conditioning on behavioral choices," Working Papers 2015:16, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2015:16
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    learner agent; investment decision; behavioral agents; Bayesian updating.;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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