Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2010. "Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3116, CESifo Group Munich.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2010. "Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1033, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
References listed on IDEAS
- Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985.
"The equity premium: A puzzle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
- R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
- Pesaran, Bahram & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2010.
"Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash,"
Economic Modelling,
Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1398-1416, November.
- Bahram Pesaran & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2010. "Conditional Volatility and Correlations of Weekly Returns and the VaR Analysis of 2008 Stock Market Crash," CESifo Working Paper Series 3023, CESifo Group Munich.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988.
"Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006.
"Survey Expectations,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting,
Elsevier.
- Dr Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 260, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 1599, CESifo Group Munich.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Martin Weale, 2005. "Survey Expectations," IEPR Working Papers 05.30, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- Pesaran, M.H. & Weale, M., 2005. "Survey Expectations," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0536, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000.
"A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns,"
Economic Journal,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-191, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Timmermann, A., 1996. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9625, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1999. "A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp322, Financial Markets Group.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980.
"On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
- Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
- Pesaran, Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005.
"Real-Time Econometrics,"
Econometric Theory,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 212-231, February.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," CESifo Working Paper Series 1169, CESifo Group Munich.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan G, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," CEPR Discussion Papers 4402, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Real Time Econometrics’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0432, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Real Time Econometrics," IZA Discussion Papers 1108, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2011.
"Weak and strong cross‐section dependence and estimation of large panels,"
Econometrics Journal,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 45-90, February.
- Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2011. "Weak and strong cross‐section dependence and estimation of large panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14, pages 45-90, February.
- Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2009. "Weak and strong cross section dependence and estimation of large panels," Working Paper Series 1100, European Central Bank.
- Chudik, A. & Pesaran, M.H. & Tosetti, E., 2009. "Weak and Strong Cross Section Dependence and Estimation of Large Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0924, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Elisa Tosetti, 2009. "Weak and Strong Cross Section Dependence and Estimation of Large Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 2689, CESifo Group Munich.
- Granger, Clive W. J., 1992. "Forecasting stock market prices: Lessons for forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 3-13, June.
- Clare, Andrew D & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Thomas, Stephen H, 1995. "An Analysis of Seasonality in the U.K. Equity Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 398-409, March.
- Breen, William & Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1989. " Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1177-1189, December.
- Campbell, John Y., 1987.
"Stock returns and the term structure,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
- John Y. Campbell, 1985. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 1626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2010.
"Beauty Contests and "Irrational Exuberance": A Neoclassical Approach,"
Discussion Papers
1502, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2010. "Beauty Contests and Irrational Exuberance: A Neoclassical Approach," Levine's Working Paper Archive 661465000000000237, David K. Levine.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2010. "Beauty Contests and Irrational Exuberance: A Neoclassical Approach," NBER Working Papers 15883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia, 1995. "U.K. Stock Returns: Predictability and Business Conditions," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(0), pages 85-102, Suppl..
- Clare, A D & Thomas, S H & Wickens, M R, 1994. "Is the Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio Useful for Predicting UK Stock Returns?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(423), pages 303-315, March.
- Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Its Critics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 59-82, Winter.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2010. "Conditional Volatility and Correlations of Weekly Returns and the VaR Analysis of 2008 Stock Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1025, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
- Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
- Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-1128, September.
- Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1993. "The Risk and Predictability of International Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 527-566.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- repec:rmk:rmkjrc:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:51-69 is not listed on IDEAS
More about this item
Keywords
market efficiency; predictability; heterogeneity of expectations; forecast averaging; equity premium puzzle;JEL classification:
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ALL-2010-07-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2010-07-24 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2010-07-24 (Financial Markets)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak). General contact details of provider: http://www.iza.org .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.