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Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis

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  • Pesaran, M. Hashem

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk aversion and market efficiency. The paper then focuses on the theoretical foundation of the EMH, and show that market efficiency could co-exit with heterogeneous beliefs and individual irrationality so long as individual errors are cross sectionally weakly dependent in the sense defined by Chudik, Pesaran, and Tosetti (2010). But at times of market euphoria or gloom these individual errors are likely to become cross sectionally strongly dependent and the collective outcome could display significant departures from market efficiency. Market efficiency could be the norm, but it is likely to be punctuated with episodes of bubbles and crashes. The paper also considers if market inefficiencies (assuming that they exist) can be exploited for profit.

Suggested Citation

  • Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2010. "Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis," IZA Discussion Papers 5037, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5037
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Weale, Martin, 2006. "Survey Expectations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 715-776, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Vasilios Sogiakas, 2017. "Efficiency of the UK Stock Exchange," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 51-69.
    3. Ata Ozkaya & Omer Altun, 2024. "Domestic and Global Causes for Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence From Turkey," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(2), pages 21582440241, April.
    4. Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar T. Rachev & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2019. "A Rational Finance Explanation of the Stock Predictability Puzzle," Papers 1911.02194, arXiv.org.
    5. Svetlozar Rachev & Stoyan Stoyanov & Stefan Mittnik & Frank J. Fabozzi & Abootaleb Shirvani, 2017. "Behavioral Finance -- Asset Prices Predictability, Equity Premium Puzzle, Volatility Puzzle: The Rational Finance Approach," Papers 1710.03211, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2020.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market efficiency; predictability; heterogeneity of expectations; forecast averaging; equity premium puzzle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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