Forecast rationality tests in the presence of instabilities, with applications to Federal Reserve and survey forecasts
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2016. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, with Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 507-532, April.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyany, 2014. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," Working Papers 765, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2016. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 11391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
References listed on IDEAS
- Sinclair, Tara M. & Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H.O., 2010.
"Can the Fed predict the state of the economy?,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 28-32, July.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Fred Joutz & Herman O. Stekler, 2009. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2009-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Mar 2010.
- Tara Sinclair & Frederick L. Joutz, 2009. "Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy?," Working Papers 2008-06, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Convergence to Stochastic Integrals for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 489-500, December.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere, 2005.
"Unit Root Tests under Time-Varying Variances,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 259-292.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere, 2003. "Unit root tests under time-varying variances," Quaderni di Dipartimento 2, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna.
- West, Kenneth D & McCracken, Michael W, 1998.
"Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 817-840, November.
- West, K.D. & McCracken, M.W., 1997. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," Working papers 9710, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West & Michael W. McCracken, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," NBER Technical Working Papers 0226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2009.
"Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns,"
Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 669-705.
- Raffella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," UCLA Economics Working Papers 845, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Detecting and predicting forecast breakdowns," Working Paper Series 638, European Central Bank.
- Rossi, Barbara & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2006. "Detecting and Predicting Forecast Breakdowns," Working Papers 06-01, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2009.
"Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts Using a Large Realtime Dataset,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 468-479.
- Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset," NBER Working Papers 13397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012.
"Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Working Papers 11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Economics Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995.
"Forecast evaluation and combination,"
Research Paper
9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
- Dean Croushore, 1998. "Evaluating inflation forecasts," Working Papers 98-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2016.
"Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, with Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 507-532, April.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyany, 2014. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," Working Papers 765, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2014. "Forecast rationality tests in the presence of instabilities, with applications to Federal Reserve and survey forecasts," Economics Working Papers 1426, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2014.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2016. "Forecast Rationality Tests in the Presence of Instabilities, With Applications to Federal Reserve and Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 11391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:taf:jnlbes:v:30:y:2012:i:1:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
- Jacob A. Mincer, 1969. "Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number minc69-1, March.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010.
"Forecast comparisons in unstable environments,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 595-620.
- Giacomini, Raffaella & Rossi, Barbara, 2008. "Forecast Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 08-04, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009.
"Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
- Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2007. "Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?," Working Papers 2007-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jul 2008.
- Dean Croushore, 2012. "Forecast bias in two dimensions," Working Papers 12-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019.
"Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them,"
Economics Working Papers
1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
- Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," Working Papers 1162, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities: How Do We Know Whether Models Predict Well and How to Improve Them," CEPR Discussion Papers 14472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012.
"Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
- Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Working Papers 11-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size," Economics Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," CEPR Discussion Papers 8542, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2020. "Introducing the Bank of Canada staff economic projections database," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 114-129, January.
- Matei Demetrescu & Christoph Hanck & Robinson Kruse‐Becher, 2022. "Robust inference under time‐varying volatility: A real‐time evaluation of professional forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(5), pages 1010-1030, August.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015.
"Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models,"
Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Working Papers 819, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Martínez-Martin, Jaime & Morris, Richard & Onorante, Luca & Piersanti, Fabio M., 2019. "Merging structural and reduced-form models for forecasting: opening the DSGE-VAR box," Working Paper Series 2335, European Central Bank.
- Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2014.
"Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 365-388, August.
- Henning Fischer & Marta García-Bárzana & Peter Tillmann & Peter Winker, 2012. "Evaluating FOMC forecast ranges: an interval data approach," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201213, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015.
"What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Jeff Messina & Herman Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Jeff Messina & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions To The Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Benchimol, Jonathan & El-Shagi, Makram, 2020.
"Forecast performance in times terrorism,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 386-402.
- Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi, 2017. "Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
- Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi, 2020. "Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism," Globalization Institute Working Papers 390, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi, 2019. "Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2019.08, Bank of Israel.
- Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi, 2020. "Forecast performance in times of terrorism," Post-Print halshs-03248938, HAL.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2011.
"Understanding models' forecasting performance,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 158-172, September.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2010. "Understanding Models' Forecasting Performance," Working Papers 10-56, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 510-514, October.
- Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "Evaluating the Bank of Canada Staff Economic Projections Using a New Database of Real-Time Data and Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-52, Bank of Canada.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013.
"Exchange Rate Predictability,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 690, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability," Economics Working Papers 1369, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chang, Andrew C. & Hanson, Tyler J., 2016. "The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018.
"Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?,"
Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong, 2018. "Big data analytics in economics: What have we learned so far, and where should we go from here?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 695-746, August.
- Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013.
"Advances in Forecast Evaluation,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1107-1201,
Elsevier.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers (Old Series) 1120, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Advances in forecast evaluation," Working Papers 2011-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2022. "Correlation Based Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 112014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ericsson, Neil R., 2016.
"Eliciting GDP forecasts from the FOMC’s minutes around the financial crisis,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 571-583.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2015-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- Neil R. Ericsson, 2015. "Eliciting GDP Forecasts from the FOMC’s Minutes Around the Financial Crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1152, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
More about this item
Keywords
Forecasting; forecast rationality; regression-based tests of forecasting ability; Greenbook forecasts; survey forecasts; real-time data;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ECM-2014-06-28 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2014-06-28 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2014-06-28 (Monetary Economics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.upf.edu/ .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask the person in charge to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.upf.edu/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.