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Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Hope. Large Language Models and Central Bank Communication

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  • Rubén Fernández-Fuertes

Abstract

I develop a multi-agent LLM framework that processes Federal Reserve communications to construct narrative monetary policy surprises. By analyzing Beige Books and Minutes released before each FOMC meeting, the system generates conditional expectations that yield less noisy surprises than market-based measures. These surprises produce theoretically consistent impulse responses where contractionary shocks generate persistent disinflationary effects and enable profitable yield curve trading strategies that outperform alternatives. By directly extracting expectations rather than cleaning surprises ex post, this approach demonstrates how multi-agent LLMs can implement narrative identification at scale without contamination in high-frequency measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubén Fernández-Fuertes, 2025. "Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Hope. Large Language Models and Central Bank Communication," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 25257, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp25257
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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis

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