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Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo J. Caballero
  • Alp Simsek

Abstract

We build a model in which the Fed and the market disagree about future aggregate demand. The market anticipates monetary policy "mistakes," which affect current demand and induce the Fed to partially accommodate the market's view. The Fed expects to implement its view gradually. Announcements that reveal an unexpected change in the Fed's belief provide a microfoundation for monetary policy shocks. Tantrum shocks arise when the market misinterprets the Fed's belief and overreacts to its announcement. Uncertainty about tantrums motivates further gradualism and communication. Finally, disagreements affect the market's expected inflation and induce a policy trade-off similar to "cost-push" shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2353-2392, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:112:y:2022:i:7:p:2353-92
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210271
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gáti, Laura & Handlan, Amy, 2025. "Reputation for Confidence," Working Paper Series 3141, European Central Bank.
    2. Stephen J. Cole & Enrique Martínez García & Eric Sims, 2023. "Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis," Globalization Institute Working Papers 424, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 03 Apr 2025.
    3. Florian B¨oser, 2021. "Monetary Policy under Subjective Beliefs of Banks: Optimal Central Bank Collateral Requirements," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 21/357, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    4. Yang, Jianlei, 2023. "Financial stabilization policy, market sentiment, and stock market returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    5. Yang, Jianlei, 2024. "Financial stability policy and downside risk in stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    6. Ahrens, Maximilian & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & McMahon, Michael & Neely, Christopher J. & Yang, Xiye, 2025. "Mind your language: Market responses to central bank speeches," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    7. Michael D Bauer & Carolin E Pflueger & Adi Sunderam, 2024. "Perceptions About Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(4), pages 2227-2278.
    8. Semmler, Willi & Toure, Marieme, 2024. "Financial fragility, regime change, and monetary policy in an open economy – A model and empirical application to emerging market countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    9. Rubén Fernández-Fuertes, 2025. "Monetary Policy Shocks: A New Hope. Large Language Models and Central Bank Communication," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 25257, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    10. Jia, Pengfei & Shen, Haopeng & Zheng, Shikun, 2023. "Monetary policy rules and opinionated markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    11. Naifar, Nader, 2025. "Monetary policy expectations and financial Markets: A Quantile-on-Quantile connectedness approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Philippe Andrade & Erwan Gautier & Eric Mengus & Emanuel Moench, 2025. "Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance," Working Papers 25-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Han, Zhao, 2024. "Asymmetric information and misaligned inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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