IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/moneco/v143y2024ics0304393223001253.html

Asymmetric information and misaligned inflation expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Han, Zhao

Abstract

Recent survey evidence reveals misaligned inflation expectations among economic agents. While households associate higher expected inflation with lower output growth, professional forecasters link higher future inflation to higher output growth. Firms’ expectations display neither negative nor positive correlations. We explain such patterns jointly in a general equilibrium New Keynesian framework. Asymmetric information arises naturally as (i) households and firms receive imperfect, asymmetric information about supply and demand shocks, and (ii) the central bank learns from equilibrium outcomes (i.e., output and inflation) as opposed to the private sector. Survey data help uncover the magnitudes of information frictions among economic agents.

Suggested Citation

  • Han, Zhao, 2024. "Asymmetric information and misaligned inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:143:y:2024:i:c:s0304393223001253
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.10.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393223001253
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.10.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2018. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2477-2512, September.
    2. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    3. Nimark, Kristoffer, 2008. "Dynamic pricing and imperfect common knowledge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 365-382, March.
    4. Hassan Afrouzi & Choongryul Yang, 2021. "Dynamic Rational Inattention and the Phillips Curve," CESifo Working Paper Series 8840, CESifo.
    5. George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo, 2021. "Myopia and Anchoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(4), pages 1166-1200, April.
    6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
    7. Han, Zhao & Tan, Fei & Wu, Jieran, 2022. "Analytic policy function iteration," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    10. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    11. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo & Karthik A. Sastry, 2021. "Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 1-86.
    13. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    14. Michael Weber & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2023. "The Expected, Perceived, and Realized Inflation of US Households Before and During the COVID19 Pandemic," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 326-368, March.
    15. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2020. "Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2748-2782, September.
    16. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2009. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 769-803, June.
    17. Benhima, Kenza & Poilly, Céline, 2021. "Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 278-295.
    18. Rupal Kamdar, 2019. "The Inattentive Consumer: Sentiment and Expectations," 2019 Meeting Papers 647, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Born, Benjamin & Pfeifer, Johannes, 2014. "Policy risk and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 68-85.
    20. Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovička & Paul Ho, 2025. "Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(3), pages 1375-1437.
    21. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Guido Lorenzoni, 2013. "News, Noise, and Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(7), pages 3045-3070, December.
    22. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2018. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1447-1491, December.
    23. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2022. "Monetary Policy with Opinionated Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2353-2392, July.
    24. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    25. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    26. George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2020. "Business-Cycle Anatomy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3030-3070, October.
    27. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2017. "Dampening General Equilibrium: From Micro to Macro," NBER Working Papers 23379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2012. "Estimating nonlinear DSGE models by the simulated method of moments: With an application to business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 914-938.
    29. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    30. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    31. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    32. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2005. "Central Bank Transparency and the Signal Value of Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(2), pages 1-66.
    33. Lukas Hoesch & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2023. "Has the Information Channel of Monetary Policy Disappeared? Revisiting the Empirical Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 355-387, July.
    34. Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
    36. Alexandre N. Kohlhas & Ansgar Walther, 2021. "Asymmetric Attention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 2879-2925, September.
    37. Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(5), pages 866-907.
    38. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
    39. Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 853-884.
    40. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
    41. Mitman, Kurt & Broer, Tobias & Kohlhas, Alexandre & Schlafmann, Kathrin, 2021. "Information and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15934, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    42. Nathanael Vellekoop & Mirko Wiederholt, 2019. "Inflation Expectations and Choices of Households," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03878694, HAL.
    43. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qiang Chen & Zechen Yin, 2025. "Informational differences, adaptive learning, and inflation forecast bias," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(3), pages 236-259, September.
    2. Luca Vota & Luisa Errichiello, 2025. "Job insecurity, equilibrium determinacy and E-stability in a New Keynesian model with asymmetric information. Theory and simulation analysis," Papers 2512.13627, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    3. Jean-Paul Renne & Sarah Mouabbi & Adrien Tschopp, 2026. "Inflation and Growth Risk: Balancing the Scales with Surveys," Working papers 1036, Banque de France.
    4. Okan Akarsu & Emrehan Aktuğ, 2025. "Decomposing supply- and demand-driven inflation in Turkey," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 1047-1077, August.
    5. Dmitry Novikov, 2026. "Consumers' Inflation Expectations in Russia and the US: Testing the Diagnostic Expectations Hypothesis," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 85(1), pages 35-62, March.
    6. Luca Vota & Luisa Errichiello, 2025. "Job insecurity and equilibrium determinacy in a rational expectations, New Keynesian model with asymmetric information. A theoretical analysis," Papers 2510.11125, arXiv.org.
    7. Chen, Qiang & Yin, Zechen & Zhang, Shuai, 2025. "Adaptive learning expectation, intermediate exchange rate regime, and monetary autonomy: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    8. Marco M. Sorge & Luca Vota, 2026. "Asymmetric Information and Multiple Equilibria in Rational Expectations Models: A Note," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 12(1), pages 685-700, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhao Han & Xiaohan Ma & Ruoyun Mao, 2023. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 72-106, April.
    2. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    3. Ángelo Gutiérrez-Daza, 2024. "Business Cycles when Consumers Learn by Shopping," Working Papers 2024-12, Banco de México.
    4. Falck, E. & Hoffmann, M. & Hürtgen, P., 2021. "Disagreement about inflation expectations and monetary policy transmission," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 15-31.
    5. Atahan Afsar; José Elías Gallegos; Richard Jaimes; Edgar Silgado Gómez & Jos� El�as Gallegos & Richard Jaimes & Edgar Silgado G�mez, 2020. "Reconciling Empirics and Theory: The Behavioral Hybrid New Keynesian Model," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-41.
    6. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
    7. Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2024. "The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    8. Ou, Shengliang & Zhang, Donghai & Zhang, Renbin, 2021. "Information frictions, monetary policy, and the paradox of price flexibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 70-82.
    9. Kohlhas, Alexandre N. & Robertson, Donald, 2025. "Cautious expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(S).
    10. Tatsushi Okuda & Tomohiro Tsuruga, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Central Bank Communication with Unknown Prior," IMES Discussion Paper Series 21-E-07, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    11. George-Marios Angeletos, 2018. "Frictional Coordination," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 563-603.
    12. Huo, Zhen & Pedroni, Marcelo, 2023. "Dynamic information aggregation: Learning from the past," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 107-124.
    13. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Filip Matějka & Mirko Wiederholt, 2023. "Rational Inattention: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 226-273, March.
    14. Hellwig, Christian & Venkateswaran, Venky, 2025. "Dispersed information, nominal rigidities and monetary business cycles: A Hayekian perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(S).
    15. Adrien Auclert & Ludwig Straub & Matthew Rognlie, 2019. "Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model," 2019 Meeting Papers 1449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Aktuğ, Emrehan & Rezghi, Abolfazl, 2025. "Asymmetric overreaction," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    17. Etienne Briand & Massimiliano Marcellino & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2024. "Inflation, Attention and Expectations," Working Papers 24-05, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Dec 2024.
    18. Nathan Goldstein & Ohad Raveh, 2024. "Looking up the sky: unidentified aerial phenomena and macroeconomic attention," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    19. Alistair Macaulay, 2022. "Heterogeneous Information, Subjective Model Beliefs, and the Time-Varying Transmission of Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9733, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:143:y:2024:i:c:s0304393223001253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.