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SVAR identification with nowcasted macroeconomic data

Author

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  • Corsi, Fulvio
  • Longo, Luigi
  • Cordoni, Francesco

Abstract

Starting from the theoretical observation that the identification problem of SVAR models arises from contemporaneous dependence among macroeconomic variables, we show, both theoretically and empirically, that such dependence tends to vanish as the observation frequency increases. By adopting nowcasted high-frequency data, we exploit this feature to identify structural shocks using standard short-run restrictions, thereby reducing or even eliminating the reliance on variable ordering. Our empirical analysis is divided into two parts: an illustrative application comparing identification strategies across different frequencies, and a structural section featuring (i) a Proxy(HF-)SVAR to recover exogenous monetary policy shocks, and (ii) an uncertainty shock analysis using high-frequency data to replicate the well-known dynamics found in the literature. The results align with recent findings and highlight the feasibility and usefulness of preserving high-frequency information in all variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Corsi, Fulvio & Longo, Luigi & Cordoni, Francesco, 2025. "SVAR identification with nowcasted macroeconomic data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:179:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925001423
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105176
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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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