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Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence

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  • Bems, Rudolfs
  • Caselli, Francesca
  • Grigoli, Francesco
  • Gruss, Bertrand

Abstract

Understanding the sources of inflation persistence is crucial for monetary policy. This paper provides an assessment of the influence of inflation expectations' anchoring on the persistence of inflation. We construct an index of inflation expectations' anchoring using survey-based inflation forecasts for 45 economies since 1989. We then study the response of consumer prices to terms-of-trade shocks and find that these shocks have a significant and persistent effect on consumer price inflation when expectations are poorly anchored. By contrast, inflation reacts by less and returns quickly to its pre-shock level when expectations are strongly anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Bems, Rudolfs & Caselli, Francesca & Grigoli, Francesco & Gruss, Bertrand, 2021. "Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence," CEPR Discussion Papers 16391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16391
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    4. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    7. Brian Micallef & Reuben Ellul, 2020. "How Do Estimates of Inflation Persistence in Malta Compare with Other EU Countries?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(7), pages 1-31, July.
    8. Joseph Ifeolu Falegan & Ebele Amali, 2023. "An Evaluation of the Optimal Inflation Target for Economic Growth in Nigeria," Journal of Social Science Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 1-1, June.
    9. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Melih Firat & Davide Furceri & Daniel Jimenez, 2023. "State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Working Papers 2023/086, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Czudaj, Robert L., 2023. "Anchoring of Inflation Expectations and the Role of Monetary Policy and Cost-Push Factors," MPRA Paper 119029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Bems, Rudolfs & Caselli, Francesca & Grigoli, Francesco & Gruss, Bertrand, 2020. "Gains from anchoring inflation expectations: Evidence from the taper tantrum shock," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
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    15. Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2021. "Understanding Chile’s Social Unrest in an International Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2021/174, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Stanisławska, Ewa & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "Responsiveness of consumers' medium-term inflation expectations : evidence from a new euro area survey," Research Discussion Papers 10/2021, Bank of Finland.
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    22. Freddy A. Pinzón-Puerto & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2023. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? A Foreign Exchange Intervention Analysis," Borradores de Economia 1223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anchoring; Credibility; Inflation expectations; Inflation persistence; Terms of trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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