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Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases

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  • Xu Zhang

    (University of California, San Diego)

Abstract

This paper evaluates the effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) when the nominal interest rate reaches the zero lower bound. I investigate the effects of the two policies in a dynamic new Keynesian model with financial frictions adapted from Gertler & Karadi (2011, 2013), with changes implemented so that the framework delivers realistic predictions for the effects of each policy on the entire yield curve. I then match the change that the model predicts would arise from a linear combination of the two shocks with the observed change in the yield curve in a high-frequency window around Federal Reserve announcements, allowing me to identify the separate contributions of each shock to the effects of the announcement. My estimates correspond closely to narrative elements of the FOMC announcements. My estimates imply that forward guidance was more important in influencing inflation, while LSAP was more important in influencing output.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu Zhang, 2018. "Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases," 2018 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:894
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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