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The dynamic effects of forward guidance shocks

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  • Brent Bundick
  • Andrew Lee Smith

Abstract

We examine the macroeconomic effcts of forward guidance shocks at the zero lower bound. Empirically, we identify forward guidance shocks using unexpected changes in futures contracts around monetary policy announcements. We then embed these policy shocks in a vector autoregression to trace out their macroeconomic implications. Forward guidance shocks that lower expected future policy rates lead to moderate increases in economic activity and inflation. After examining forward guidance shocks in the data, we show that a standard model of nominal price rigidity can reproduce our empirical findings. To estimate our theoretical model, we generate a model-implied futures curve which closely links our model with the data. Our results suggest no disconnect between the empirical effects of forward guidance shocks around policy announcements and the predictions from a standard theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Bundick & Andrew Lee Smith, 2016. "The dynamic effects of forward guidance shocks," Research Working Paper RWP 16-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, revised 15 Jan 2016.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp16-02
    DOI: 10.18651/RWP2016-02
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    File URL: https://doi.org/10.18651/RWP2016-02
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2018. "Understanding the Aspects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Working Papers (Old Series) 1815, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 07 Nov 2018.
    2. Christian Bredemeier & Christoph Kaufmann & Andreas Schabert, 2017. "Interest Rate Spreads and Forward Guidance," Working Paper Series in Economics 96, University of Cologne, Department of Economics.
    3. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 193-222, December.
    4. Hartmann, Philipp & Smets, Frank, 2018. "The first twenty years of the European Central Bank: monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2219, European Central Bank.
    5. Janice C. Eberly & James H. Stock & Jonathan H. Wright, 2019. "The Federal Reserve’s Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 26002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Aeimit Lakdawala, 2019. "Decomposing the effects of monetary policy using an external instruments SVAR," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 934-950, September.
    7. Xu Zhang, 2018. "Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases," 2018 Meeting Papers 894, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Lilia Maliar & John B. Taylor, 2019. "Forward Guidance: Is It Useful Away from the Lower Bound?," NBER Working Papers 26053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on Policy Expectations," Working Papers hal-01394821, HAL.
    10. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jonas D. M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano & Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Forward Guidance and Macroeconomic Outcomes since the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 283-357.
    11. Maliar, Lilia & Taylor, John B., 2018. "Forward Guidance: Is It Useful After the Crisis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13383, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zero lower bound; Impulse response matching; Forward guidance; Monetary policy shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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