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Food Price Pass-Through in the Euro Area: Non-Linearities and the Role of the Common Agricultural Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Gianluigi Ferrucci

    (European Central Bank)

  • Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez

    (University of Salamanca)

  • Luca Onorantea

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the pass-through of a commodity price shock along the food price chain in the euro area. Departing from the existing literature, which focuses on food commodity prices as quoted in international markets, we use a novel database that accounts for the role of the Common Agricultural Policy in the European Union. We model several departures from the linear pass-through benchmark and compare alternative specifications with aggregate and disaggregate data. Overall, when the appropriate data set and methodology are used, it is possible to identify a significant and long-lasting pass-through. The results of our regressions are applied to the food price shock in the 2007–08 period; a decomposition exercise shows that commodity prices are the main determinant of the increase in producer and consumer prices, thus solving the puzzle highlighted in the existing literature for the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianluigi Ferrucci & Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez & Luca Onorantea, 2012. "Food Price Pass-Through in the Euro Area: Non-Linearities and the Role of the Common Agricultural Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 179-218, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:1:a:9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Porqueddu Mario & Venditti Fabrizio, 2014. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on euro-area inflation?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Castro, César & Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2017. "Oil price pass-through along the price chain in the euro area," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 24-30.
    3. Atsushi Sekine & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2014. "Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Inflation: A Cross Country Analysis," Discussion papers e-13-006, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    4. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:1065-1081 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:wdevel:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:216-230 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Ferguson, Shon & Gars, Johan, 2016. "Productivity Shocks, International Trade and Import Prices: Evidence from Agriculture," Working Paper Series 1107, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    7. Akpan, S.B. & Udoka, S. J. & Inimfon, V. P., 2016. "Assessment of Rice Market Competiveness Using Horizontal Price Transmission: Empirical Evidence from Southern Region of Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 8(2), June.
    8. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2017. "Short-term inflation forecasting: The M.E.T.A. approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1065-1081.
    9. Lloyd, Tim & McCorriston, Steve & Zvogu, Evious, 2015. "Common Shocks, Uncommon Effects: Food Price Inflation across the EU," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212055, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Bekkers, Eddy & Brockmeier, Martina & Francois, Joseph & Yang, Fan, 2017. "Local Food Prices and International Price Transmission," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 216-230.
    11. Lloyd, Tim & McCorriston, Steve & Morgan, Wyn & Zvogu, Evious, 2015. "Common Shocks, Uncommon Effects: Food Price Inflation across the EU," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204301, Agricultural Economics Society.
    12. Garcia-German, Sol & Garrido, Alberto & Bardaji, Isabel, 2014. "Evaluating Transmission Prices between Global Agricultural Markets and Consumers' Food Price Indices in the EU," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183039, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Ferguson, Shon & Gars, Johan, 2015. "Productivity Shocks, International Trade and Pass-Through: Evidence from Agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211646, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Sol García-Germán & Isabel Bardají & Alberto Garrido, 2016. "Evaluating price transmission between global agricultural markets and consumer food price indices in the European Union," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 47(1), pages 59-70, January.
    15. Misati, Roseline Nyakerario & Munene, Olive, 3. "Second Round Effects And Pass-Through Of Food Prices To Inflation In Kenya," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(3).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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