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Revisiting the Role of Inflation Environment in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Panel Threshold Approach

Author

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  • Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh
  • Waël Louhichi

Abstract

This paper sheds new light on the role of inflation regime in explaining the extent of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices. In order to classify his sample of 24 developing countries by regimes of inflation, Barhoumi [(2006), “Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation”, Economic Modeling, 23 (6), 926-951.] chose an arbitrary threshold of 10% to split sample between high and low inflation regimes. For more accuracy, our study proposes to use a panel threshold framework where a grid search is used to select the appropriate threshold value. In a larger panel-data set including 63 countries over the period 1992-2012, we find that there are two thresholds points that are well identified by the data, allowing us to split our sample into three inflation regimes. When estimating the ERPT for each group of countries, we point out a strong regime-dependence of pass-through to inflation environment, that is, the class of countries with higher inflation rates experiences the higher degree of ERPT.

Suggested Citation

  • Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Waël Louhichi, 2014. "Revisiting the Role of Inflation Environment in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through: A Panel Threshold Approach," FIW Working Paper series 132, FIW.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2014:i:132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeannine Bailliu & Eiji Fujii, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Staff Working Papers 04-21, Bank of Canada.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    4. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    5. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    6. Joakim Westerlund, 2007. "Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(6), pages 709-748, December.
    7. Barhoumi, Karim, 2006. "Differences in long run exchange rate pass-through into import prices in developing countries: An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 926-951, December.
    8. Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3-18.
    9. Shintani, Mototsugu & Terada-Hagiwara, Akiko & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through and inflation: A nonlinear time series analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 512-527.
    10. Matthieu Bussiere, 2013. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Trade Prices: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(5), pages 731-758, October.
    11. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
    12. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh, 2012. "Non-linearities in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from smooth transition models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(3), pages 2530-2545.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 69-105, February.
    2. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "The Pass‐through of Exchange Rate in the Context of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 154-166, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Pass - Through; Import Prices; Panel Threshold;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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