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Investigating First-Stage Exchange Rate Pass-Through : Sectoral and Macro Evidence from Euro Area Countries

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  • Christophe RAULT
  • Nidhaleddine BEN CHEIKH

Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate the first-stage pass-through, namely the responsiveness of import prices to the exchange rate changes, for a sample of euro area (EA) countries. Our study aims to shed further light on the role of microeconomic factors vs. macroeconomic factors in influencing the extent of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT). As a first step, we conduct a sectoral analysis using disaggregated import prices data. We find a much higher degree of pass-through for more homogeneous goods and commodities, such as oil and raw materials, than for highly differentiated manufactured products, such as machinery and transport equipment. Our results confirm that cross-country differences in pass-through rates may be due to divergences in the product composition of imports. The higher share of imports from sectors with lower degrees of pass-through, the lower ERPT for an economy will be. In a next step, we investigate for the impact of some macroeconomics factors or common events experienced by EA members on the extent of pass-through. Using the System Generalized Method of Moments within a dynamic panel-data model, our estimates indicate that decline of import-price sensitivity to the exchange rate is not significant since the introduction of the single currency. Our findings suggest instead that the weakness of the euro during the first three years of the monetary union significantly raised the extent of the ERPT. This outcome could explain why the sensitivity of import prices has not fallen since 1999. We also point out a significant role played by the inflation in the Eurozone, as the responsiveness of import prices to exchange rate fluctuations tends to decline in a low and more stable inflation environment. Overall, our findings support the view that the extent of pass-through is comprised of both macro- and microeconomic aspects that policymakers should take into account.
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  • Christophe RAULT & Nidhaleddine BEN CHEIKH, 2017. "Investigating First-Stage Exchange Rate Pass-Through : Sectoral and Macro Evidence from Euro Area Countries," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2477, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    • Handle: RePEc:leo:wpaper:2477
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    3. Fracasso, Andrea & Secchi, Angelo & Tomasi, Chiara, 2022. "Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 135-152.
    4. Antonia Arsova, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices in Europe: A panel cointegration approach," Working Paper Series in Economics 384, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
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    6. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes & Ben Ameur, Hachmi, 2023. "Recent developments in exchange rate pass-through: What have we learned from uncertain times?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Corbo, Vesna & Strid, Ingvar, 2020. "MAJA: A two-region DSGE model for Sweden and its main trading partners," Working Paper Series 391, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    8. Hadrien Camatte & Guillaume Daudin & Violaine Faubert & Antoine Lalliard & Christine Rifflart, 2021. "Global value chains and the transmission of exchange rate shocks to consumer prices," Working Papers hal-03374355, HAL.
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    10. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine & Ben Zaied, Younes, 2020. "Revisiting the pass-through of exchange rate in the transition economies: New evidence from new EU member states," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    11. Abdurrahman Nazif Çatik & Mehmet Karaçuka & A. Özlem Önder, 2022. "The Time-Varying Impact of External Shocks on the Consumer Price Components: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(4), pages 781-807, December.
    12. Idris Abdullahi Abdulqadir, 2022. "The nonlinearity of exchange rate pass‐through on currency invoice: A quantile, generalized method of moments and threshold effect‐test from sub‐Sahara African economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1473-1494, January.
    13. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Younes Ben Zaied & Pascal Nguyen, 2018. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Transmission in the Euro Area: A Multivariate Smooth Transition Regression Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1590-1602.
    14. Ortega, Eva & Osbat, Chiara, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through in the euro area and EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 241, European Central Bank.
    15. Safet Kurtović & Blerim Halili & Nehat Maxhuni, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: evidence from Central and Southeast European countries," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 51-80, June.
    16. Mohamed Tidjane Kinda & Hamidou Barry, 2021. "Exchange rate pass‐through to import prices: Evidence from a heterogeneous panel of West African countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 2454-2472, November.
    17. Safet Kurtović & Nehat Maxhuni & Blerim Halili & Sead Talović, 2021. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass‐through into import prices of Slovenia's manufacturing sector," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4609-4633, July.
    18. Roberta Colavecchio & Ieva Rubene, 2019. "Non-linear exchange rate pass-through to euro area inflation: A local projection approach," BCL working papers 138, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    19. Sérgio Kannebley & Diogo de Prince & Felipe dos Santos Costa, 2023. "Sectoral Exchange Rate Pass-through to Manufacturing Prices: A GVAR Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 919-958, September.
    20. Patrycja Krawczyk & Patrycja Kokot-Stepien, 2020. "The impact of the exchange rate on the financial result of enterprises in the transport sector," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 19(1), pages 47-60, March.
    21. Kurtović Safet & Šehić-Kršlak Sabina & Halili Blerim & Maxhuni Nehat, 2018. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices of Croatia," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 64(4), pages 60-73, December.
    22. Safet Kurtović, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: Evidence from Serbia," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 7-16.

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    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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