IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cem/jaecon/v6y2003n1p127-156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why Is French Equilibrium Unemployment So High?

Author

Abstract

Unemployment in France rose steadily from the early-seventies to the mid-eighties. Since the mid-eighties it has continued to experience fluctuations around a very high average level. Equilibrium unemployment theories are a useful framework within which to account for these developments. A multivariate estimation of the WS-PS model on macroeconomic quarterly data, which includes a larger number of potential unemployment determinants than earlier work, allows an enriched reading of the rise in French unemployment and of its persistence at a high level. We estimated it using a conditional VAR-ECM model, which is based upon the weak exogeneity properties of variables over the 1970-1/1996-4 period. The rise in equilibrium unemployment by 10 points in 25 years can essentially be explained by the rise in tax and social wedge, the slowdown in labour productivity and the deterioration of job security. Terms of exchange and skill mismatch account for only a slim part of the rise in equilibrium unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Yannick L'horty & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Why Is French Equilibrium Unemployment So High?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 127-156, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:6:y:2003:n:1:p:127-156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/volume6/lhorty.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107, November.
    3. Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 1999. "Le modèle WS-PS," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 53, pages 1-30.
    4. Boswijk, Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 1992. "Dynamic Specification and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 369-381, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01027420, HAL.
    2. Jacqueline Pradel & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models with Purely Exogenous Long‐Run Paths," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 629-653, December.
    3. Holmlund, Bertil & Alexius, Annika, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-25.
    4. Najia Maraoui & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Islem Khefacha & Christophe Rault, 2021. "How Economic, Political, and Institutional Factors Influence the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes? New Evidence from Selected Countries of the MENA Region," Working Papers 1498, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Oct 2021.
    5. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Adel Ben Youssef & Hatem M'Henni & Christophe Rault, 2014. "Energy use and economic growth in Africa: a panel Granger-causality investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 1247-1258.
    6. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Paola Veroni & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoretical and empirical appraisal," Sciences Po publications 2007-34, Sciences Po.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1904 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Ben Youssef, Adel & M'henni, Hatem & Rault, Christophe, 2012. "Energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Middle East and North African countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 342-349.
    9. Fateh Belaid & Christophe Rault, 2020. "Energy Expenditure in Egypt: Empirical Evidence Based on A Quantile Regression Approach," Working Papers 1446, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Dec 2020.
    10. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 69-105, February.
    11. Sabrine Ferjani & Sami Saafi & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2022. "The Impacts of the Dollar-Renminbi Exchange Rate Misalignment on the China-United States Commodity Trade: An Asymmetric Analysis," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 20(3), pages 507-554, September.
    12. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ten New EU Members," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 940, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Fateh Belaïd & Christophe Rault & Camille Massié, 2022. "A life-cycle theory analysis of French household electricity demand," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 501-530, April.
    14. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-481 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Ben Youssef, Adel & M'henni, Hatem & Rault, Christophe, 2014. "Exploring the Causality Links between Energy and Employment in African Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 8296, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2017. "Investigating first-stage exchange rate pass-through: Sectoral and macro evidence from euro area countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2611-2638, December.
    17. Besso, Christophe Raoul, 2010. "Phillips Curve, case study in Cameroon: evaluation of fundamental assumptions," MPRA Paper 35614, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2011.
    18. Fateh Belaïd & Christophe Rault & Camille Massié, 2021. "A Life-Cycle Analysis of French Household Electricity Demand," CESifo Working Paper Series 8814, CESifo.
    19. Frédéric Reynés & Paola Veroni & Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Noé N'Semi & Maël Theulière, 2008. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD shocks and institutions solve the OECD Unemployment Puzzle ? A Theoritical and Empirical Appraisal," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9726, Sciences Po.
    20. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-475 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Sahbi Farhani & Sana Mrizak & Anissa Chaibi & Christophe Rault, 2014. "The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Sustainability: A Panel Data Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4787, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wasmer, E., 1997. "Can Labour Supply Explain the Rise in Unemployment and Inter-Group Wage Inequality in the OECD?," Papers 629, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    2. Yannick L'horty & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Why Is French Equilibrium Unemployment So High? an Estimation of the Ws-Ps Model," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 127-156, May.
    3. Brauer, Holger & Falk, Martin & Raiser, Martin, 1996. "Labour markets in Poland and Hungary five years from the start of transition: Evidence from monthly data," Kiel Working Papers 742, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Olivier Bontout & Sébastien Jean, 1998. "Wages and Unemployment: Trade-off Under Different Labour Market Paradigms," Working Papers 1998-13, CEPII research center.
    5. Forslund, Anders & Kolm, Ann-Sofie, 2000. "Active labour market policies and real-wage determination - Swedish evidence," Working Paper Series 2000:7, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    6. Wasmer, E., 1998. "Can labour supply explain the rise in unemployment and intergroup wage inequality in the OECD?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20245, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Judith A. Giles & Sadaf Mirza, 1999. "Some Pretesting Issues on Testing for Granger Noncausality," Econometrics Working Papers 9914, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    8. Garloff, Alfred, 2003. "Lohndispersion und Arbeitslosigkeit: Neuere Ansätze in der Suchtheorie," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-60, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 605-634, February.
    10. Peter Huber & Peter Mayerhofer & Helmut Hofer & Gerhard Palme, 2001. "Teilprojekt 9: Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf den österreichischen Arbeitsmarkt," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 19839, September.
    11. Vicente Rios Ibañez, 2014. "What drives regional unemployment convergence?," ERSA conference papers ersa14p924, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Mohamed, Hazik & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Stock market comovement among the ASEAN-5 : a causality analysis," MPRA Paper 98781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Samad, Abdul & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Does institutional quality matter in attracting foreign direct investment? the case of Ethiopia based on ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 108493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    15. David Kucera, 1998. "Unemployment and External and Internal Labor Market Flexibility: A Comparative View of Europe, Japan, and the United States," SCEPA working paper series. 1998-21, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    16. M. T. Alguacil & V. Orts, 2003. "Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Imports in Spain," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 19-38.
    17. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. de Albuquerquemello, Vinícius Phillipe & de Medeiros, Rennan Kertlly & da Nóbrega Besarria, Cássio & Maia, Sinézio Fernandes, 2018. "Forecasting crude oil price: Does exist an optimal econometric model?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 578-591.
    19. Ketenci, Natalya, 2009. "The ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Demand in Turkey: with Greece as the substitution destination," MPRA Paper 86602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jou, Rong-Chang & Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Wu, Yuan-Chan & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 696-706.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour market; WS-PS model; equilibrium unemployment; cointegration; conditional VAR-ECM model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:6:y:2003:n:1:p:127-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Valeria Dowding (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cemaaar.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.