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Why Is French Equilibrium Unemployment So High?

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Abstract

Unemployment in France rose steadily from the early-seventies to the mid-eighties. Since the mid-eighties it has continued to experience fluctuations around a very high average level. Equilibrium unemployment theories are a useful framework within which to account for these developments. A multivariate estimation of the WS-PS model on macroeconomic quarterly data, which includes a larger number of potential unemployment determinants than earlier work, allows an enriched reading of the rise in French unemployment and of its persistence at a high level. We estimated it using a conditional VAR-ECM model, which is based upon the weak exogeneity properties of variables over the 1970-1/1996-4 period. The rise in equilibrium unemployment by 10 points in 25 years can essentially be explained by the rise in tax and social wedge, the slowdown in labour productivity and the deterioration of job security. Terms of exchange and skill mismatch account for only a slim part of the rise in equilibrium unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Yannick L'horty & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Why Is French Equilibrium Unemployment So High?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 127-156, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:6:y:2003:n:1:p:127-156
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    File URL: http://www.cema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/volume6/lhorty.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bean, Charles R, 1994. "European Unemployment: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
    2. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
    3. Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 1999. "Le modèle WS-PS," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 53, pages 1-30.
    4. Boswijk, Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 1992. "Dynamic Specification and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 369-381, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacqueline Pradel & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models with Purely Exogenous Long-Run Paths," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 629-653, December.
    2. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "Recent estimates of exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 69-105, February.
    3. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2017. "Investigating first-stage exchange rate pass-through: Sectoral and macro evidence from euro area countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(12), pages 2611-2638, December.
    4. Holmlund, Bertil & Alexius, Annika, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-25.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Christophe Rault & Robert Sova & Anamaria Sova, 2009. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ten New EU Members," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 940, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Frédéric Reynès & Paola Veroni & Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Noé N'Semi & Maël Theulière, 2008. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD shocks and institutions solve the OECD Unemployment Puzzle ? A Theoritical and Empirical Appraisal," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9726, Sciences Po.
    7. Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI & Frédéric REYNES & Aurélien GAIMON, "undated". "Does the Interaction between Shocks and Institutions Solve the OECD Unemployment Puzzle? A Theoretical and Empirical Appraisal," EcoMod2008 23800091, EcoMod.
    8. Farhani, Sahbi & Mrizak, Sana & Chaibi, Anissa & Rault, Christophe, 2014. "The environmental Kuznets curve and sustainability: A panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 189-198.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-475 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Besso, Christophe Raoul, 2010. "Phillips Curve, case study in Cameroon: evaluation of fundamental assumptions," MPRA Paper 35614, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2011.
    11. Aurélien GAIMON & Vincent LAPEGUE & Paola MONPERRUS-VERONI & Noé N’SEMI & Frédéric REYNÈS & Maël THEULIERE, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle? a Theoretical and Empirical Appraisal," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-481 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Ben Youssef, Adel & M'henni, Hatem & Rault, Christophe, 2014. "Exploring the Causality Links between Energy and Employment in African Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 8296, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Adel Ben Youssef & Hatem M'Henni & Christophe Rault, 2014. "Energy use and economic growth in Africa: a panel Granger-causality investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(2), pages 1247-1258.
    15. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Ben Youssef, Adel & M'henni, Hatem & Rault, Christophe, 2012. "Energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Middle East and North African countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 342-349.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour market; WS-PS model; equilibrium unemployment; cointegration; conditional VAR-ECM model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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