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Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation’s Simple Dynamics

Author

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  • Cecchetti, Stephen
  • Feroli, Michael
  • Hooper, Peter
  • Kashyap, Anil
  • Schoenholtz, Kermit L.

Abstract

This report examines the behavior of inflation in the United States since 1984 (updating Cecchetti et al. (2007)). Over this period, the change in inflation is negatively serially correlated, and the change in inflation is best predicted by a statistical model that includes only information from the two most recent quarters. We find that the level of inflation fluctuates around a slowly changing trend that we call the local mean of inflation. Few variables add extra explanatory power for inflation once the local mean is taken into account. This local mean is itself well characterized by a random walk. Labor market slack has a statistically significant, but quantitatively small, effect on the local mean and inflation expectations have no effect. Some financial conditions that are influenced by monetary policy have larger effects on the local mean. Concretely, this means that one-off moves in labor market slack or inflation expectations that are not mirrored in broader indicators of inflation pressures are unlikely to be predictive of changes in trend inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Cecchetti, Stephen & Feroli, Michael & Hooper, Peter & Kashyap, Anil & Schoenholtz, Kermit L., 2017. "Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation’s Simple Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 11925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11925
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Inflation risks and inflation expectations
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-02-25 13:49:59
    2. Patience vs FAIT: Which is key in the new FOMC strategy?
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2020-09-10 11:56:35
    3. Is Inflation Coming?
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2021-02-15 12:42:50

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    3. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2021. "Measuring the slowly evolving trend in US inflation with professional forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(1), pages 199-255.
    5. Robert L. Hetzel, 2018. "The Evolution of U.S. Monetary Policy," Working Paper 18-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    6. Frédérique Bec & Patrick Kanda, 2019. "Is inflation driven by survey-based, VAR-based or myopic expectations?," Working Papers hal-02175836, HAL.
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    8. Lasha Arevadze & Tamta Sopromadze & Giorgi Tsutskiridze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili, 2020. "Identifying the Phillips Curve in Georgia," NBG Working Papers 01/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    9. Cuitiño, María Fernanda & Medina, Juan Pablo & Zacheo, Laura, 2022. "Conditional exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy credibility: Insights from Uruguay and Chile," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    10. Bowen Fu, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2023. "Structural shocks and trend inflation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    11. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan (S.J.) Koopman, 2018. "Unobserved Components with Stochastic Volatility in U.S. Inflation: Estimation and Signal Extraction," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-027/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Amir Sufi, 2019. "Prospects for Inflation in a High Pressure Economy: Is the Phillips Curve Dead or is It Just Hibernating?," NBER Working Papers 25792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Peter Hooper, 2018. "The case against price-level targeting," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 145-155, July.
    14. Kristin Forbes & Lewis Kirkham & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2021. "A Trendy Approach to UK Inflation Dynamics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(S1), pages 23-75, September.
    15. Lasha Arevadze & Tamta Sopromadze & Giorgi Tsutskiridze & Shalva Mkhatrishvili, 2020. "Identifying the Phillips Curve in Georgia," NBG Working Papers 01/2020, National Bank of Georgia.
    16. Hooper, Peter & Mishkin, Frederic S. & Sufi, Amir, 2020. "Prospects for inflation in a high pressure economy: Is the Phillips curve dead or is it just hibernating?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 26-62.
    17. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices, a speech at \"The Bank of Finland Conference on Monetary Policy and Future of EMU [Economic and M," Speech 1075, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Hetzel, Robert, 2018. "Some Like the Economy Hot: Or, Reviving the Monetarist/Keynesian Debate," Studies in Applied Economics 110, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    19. Richard H. Clarida, 2019. "The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices : a speech at the \"Fed Listens: Distributional Consequences of the Cycle and Monetary Policy\&quo," Speech 1054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Lael Brainard, 2017. "Understanding the Disconnect between Employment and Inflation with a Low Neutral Rate : a speech at The Economic Club of New York New York, New York, September 5, 2017," Speech 969, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Federal open market committee; Fomc; Inflation dynamics; Inflation expectations; Philip curve; Us monetary policy forum; Price stability; Inflation trend; Inflation target;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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