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Decaying expectations: what inflation forecasts tell us about the anchoring of inflation expectations


  • Aaron Mehrotra
  • James Yetman


Well anchored inflation expectations are considered to be a reflection of credible monetary policy. In the past, anchoring has been assessed using either long-run inflation surveys or break-even inflation rates on financial assets with long maturities. But neither of these is ideal. Here we propose an alternative measure of inflation anchoring that makes full use of readily available, multiple-horizon, fixedevent forecasts. We show that a model where forecasts are assumed to diverge away from a long-run anchor towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens fits the data well. It also provides simple estimates of the degree to which inflation expectations are anchored. Based on our estimation results we argue that inflation expectations have become more tightly anchored over time in both inflation targeting economies and in those following other regimes. However, inflation targeting regimes have seen a greater change along three dimensions: the level of the anchor has fallen further; the tightness of anchoring has increased more; and the relationship between the anchor and actual inflation outcomes has weakened to a greater degree.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2014. "Decaying expectations: what inflation forecasts tell us about the anchoring of inflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 464, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:464

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 218-231.
    2. Aaron Mehrotra & James Yetman, 2014. "How anchored are inflation expectations in Asia? Evidence from surveys of professional forecasters," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 181-191, Bank for International Settlements.
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    More about this item


    Inflation expectations; decay function; inflation targeting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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