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Central bank Credibility Before and After the Crisis

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Pierre L. Siklos

Abstract

A new measure of credibility is constructed as a function of the differential between observed inflation and some estimate of the inflation rate that the central bank targets. The target is assumed to be met flexibly. Credibility is calculated for a large group of both advanced and emerging countries from 1980 to 2014. Financial crises reduce central bank credibility and central banks with strong institutional feaures tend to do better when hit by a shock of the magnitude of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The VIX, adopting an inflation target and central bank transparency, are the most reliable determinants of credibility. Similarly, real economic growth has a significant influence on central bank credibility even in inflation targeting economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2015. "Central bank Credibility Before and After the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 21710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21710
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    Cited by:

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    3. Issler, João Victor & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2019. "Central Bank credibility and inflation expectations: a microfounded forecasting approach," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 812, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    4. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    5. Ioannis Dokas & Georgios Oikonomou & Stephanos Papadamou & Eleftherios Spyromitros, 2023. "Central Bank Credibility’s Effect on Stock Exchange Returns’ Volatility: Evidence from OECD Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-15, October.
    6. Grégory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte & Sébastien Ringuedé, 2018. "Central bank credibility and the expectations channel: evidence based on a new credibility index," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(3), pages 493-535, August.
    7. Martin Feldkircher & Paul Hofmarcher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2021. "What do central banks talk about? A European perspective on central bank communication," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/21, pages 61-81.
    8. Francesc Trillas Jané, 2016. "Behavioral Regulatory Agencies," Working Papers wpdea1606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    9. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Bicchal, Motilal, 2022. "Central bank credibility and its effect on stabilization," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 73-94.
    11. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2020. "Building Credibility and Influencing Expectations The Evolution of Central Bank Communication," Working Papers 10144, South African Reserve Bank.
    12. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "An Historical Perspective on the Quest for Financial Stability and the Monetary Policy Regime," Economics Working Papers 17108, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    13. Kim, Soyoung & Yim, Geunhyung, 2020. "Do inflation-targeting central banks adjust inflation targets to meet the target?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Pınar Kaya Soylu & Mustafa Okur & Özgür Çatıkkaş & Z. Ayca Altintig, 2020. "Long Memory in the Volatility of Selected Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, May.
    15. Ruch,Franz Ulrich, 2021. "Neutral Real Interest Rates in Inflation Targeting Emerging and Developing Economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9711, The World Bank.
    16. Baker, John D. & Lam, Jean-Paul, 2022. "Assessing the credibility of central bank signals: The case of transitory inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    17. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Media Coverage and ECB Policy-Making: Evidence from a New Index," Working Papers hal-04141572, HAL.
    18. Hwang, In Do & Lustenberger, Thomas & Rossi, Enzo, 2021. "Does communication influence executives’ opinion of central bank policy?☆," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    19. Soyoung Kim & Geunhyung Yim, 2016. "Endogeneity of Inflation Target," Working Papers 2016-18, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    20. Michael D. Bordo, 2017. "Currency competition in Switzerland," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 68(01), pages 101-108, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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