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Inflation Targeting: A Victim of Its Own Success

Author

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  • Christian Gillitzer

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • John Simon

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

Since the introduction of inflation targeting, inflation expectations have become firmly anchored at target and there has been a flattening of the Phillips curve. These changes mean that a “divine coincidence” between headline inflation and output-gap stabilization is less apparent than when inflation targeting was introduced. This has led some to call for a fundamental reengineering of inflation-targeting regimes: either adopting explicit dual mandates or replacing headline inflation with a target inflation measure more closely related to domestic output gaps. We argue instead for an evolution in the practice of CPI inflation targeting. In practice, many central banks have already moved in this direction with the adoption of flexible inflation-targeting frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Gillitzer & John Simon, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: A Victim of Its Own Success," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 259-287, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2015:q:4:a:8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kuttner, Ken & Robinson, Tim, 2010. "Understanding the flattening Phillips curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 110-125, August.
    2. Chris Ryan & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Nargis Bharucha & Christopher Kent, 1998. "Inflation Targeting in a Small Open Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9807, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
    6. Matheson, Troy & Stavrev, Emil, 2013. "The Great Recession and the inflation puzzle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 468-472.
    7. Debelle, Guy & Vickery, James, 1998. "Is the Phillips Curve a Curve? Some Evidence and Implications for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 384-398, December.
    8. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
    9. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
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    Cited by:

    1. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "Central Bank Credibility before and after the Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 19-45, February.
    3. repec:fip:fedlrv:00099 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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