Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Australia
Several recent papers have explored the possibility that inflation-targeting central banks in small open economies pay too much attention to exchange rate fluctuations; changing short-term interest rates in response to fluctuations that have transient effects on inflation could be counterproductive. Accordingly, we investigate whether the Reserve Bank of Australia, while ultimately concerned with aggregate inflation and output, should set short-term interest rates on the basis of expected inflation in the non-tradeable sector or go even further and react directly to expected wage pressures in that sector’s labour market. Our results indicate that there are no clear gains to be had from responding only to measures of inflation which abstract from temporary exchange rate fluctuations. The variability of inflation and output would be at least as great as under the current framework, while the shocks that have typically hit the Australian economy over the past couple of decades are such that interest rates would be no less variable than under the current inflation-targeting framework. We attribute these findings to the forward-looking nature of the current inflation-targeting framework, whereby exchange rate shocks are ignored in the setting of policy if they are expected to have only a temporary impact on inflation.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: GPO Box 3947, Sydney NSW 2001|
Web page: http://www.rba.gov.au/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Taylor, John B., 1999.
"The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
- Taylor, John B., 1998. "The Robustness and Efficiency of Monetary Policy Rules as Guidelines for Interest Rate Setting by the European Central Bank," Seminar Papers 649, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Paul Conway & Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt & Alasdair Scott, 1998. "Exchange rate effects and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a stochastic analysis using FPS," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/4, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Dwyer, Jacqueline, 1992. "The Tradeable Non-tradeable Dichotomy: A Practical Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(59), pages 443-459, December.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Papers 638, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dwyer, Jacqueline & Kent, Christopher & Pease, Andrew, 1994. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Testing the Small Country Assumption for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(211), pages 408-423, December. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)