Central Bank Learning, Terms Of Trade Shocks & Currency Risks: Should Only Inflation Matter For Monetary Policy?
This paper examines the role of interest rate policy in a small open economy subject to terms of trade shocks, and time-varying currency risks. The private sector makes optimal decisions in an intertemporal non-linear setting with rational, forward-looking expectations. In contrast, the monetary authority practices "least-squares learning" about the evolution of inflation, output growth, and exchange rate depreciation in alternative policy scenarios. Interest rates are set by linear quadratic optimization, with the objectives for inflation, output growth, or depreciation depending on current conditions. The simulation results show that the prefered stance is one which targets inflation only. Including other targets such as growth and exchange rate changes significantly increases output variability, and unambiguously decreases welfare.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 4th Floor, FBE Building, Level 4, 111 Barry Street. Victoria, 3010, Australia|
Phone: +61 3 8344 5355
Fax: +61 3 8344 6899
Web page: http://fbe.unimelb.edu.au/economics
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2009.
"The Conquest of South American Inflation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(2), pages 211-256, 04.
- Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The Conquest of South American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 12606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "The conquest of South American inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999.
"Taylor rules in a limited participation model,"
9902, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor rules in a limited participation model," Working Paper Series WP-99-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- L.J. Christiano & C.J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 33, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher J. Gust, 1999. "Taylor Rules in a Limited Participation Model," NBER Working Papers 7017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, September.
- Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003.
"Closing small open economy models,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paul McNelis & John Duffy, 1998.
"Approximating and Simulating the Stochastic Growth Model: Parameterized Expectations, Neural Networks, and the Genetic Algorithm,"
GE, Growth, Math methods
9804004, EconWPA, revised 04 May 1998.
- Duffy, John & McNelis, Paul D., 2001. "Approximating and simulating the stochastic growth model: Parameterized expectations, neural networks, and the genetic algorithm," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1273-1303, September.
- den Haan, Wouter J & Marcet, Albert, 1990.
"Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Parameterizing Expectations,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 31-34, January.
- Wouter Denhaan & Albert Marcet, 1990. "FORTRAN code for Simulation Parameterized Expecations Algorithm," QM&RBC Codes 57, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy: Expanded Version," NBER Technical Working Papers 0233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chris Ryan & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:831. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Katherine Perez)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.