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Exchange rate effects and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a stochastic analysis using FPS

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Abstract

In this paper, stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's new macroeconomic model, FPS, are used to examine the issue of which price index monetary policy should stabilise in a small open economy. Under the class of policy rules considered, targeting a measure of domestic inflation, which does not include the direct effects of exchange rate movements on the price of imported goods, results in lower variability in real output, nominal interest rates, the exchange rate and domestic price inflation. The result is robust if direct exchange rate effects influence agents' expectations of generalised inflation and if the policy maker is uncertain about how direct exchange rate effects influence expectations. Tracing out efficient policy frontiers under the two alternative targets illustrates that for a given level of CPI variability, output variability can be significantly reduced by targeting domestic price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Conway & Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt & Alasdair Scott, 1998. "Exchange rate effects and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a stochastic analysis using FPS," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/4, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1999/04
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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Discussion%20papers/1999/g99-4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    3. Bennett T. McCallum, 1989. "Targets, Indicators, and Instruments of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 3047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ben Hunt & Adrian Orr, 1999. "Inter-forecast monetary policy implementation: responding to unexpected exchange rate movements," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
    2. Ajimuda Olumide, 2009. "Price Volatility, Expectations and Monetary Policy in Nigeria," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1, pages 109-140, May.
    3. David Hargreaves, 1999. "SDS-FPS: a small demand-side version of the Forecasting and Policy System core model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Zain Ahmed, 2014. "Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Fluctuation in Pakistan," International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Studies (IJSSMS), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(2), pages 80-88, June.
    5. Peter Mikek, 2004. "Inflation targeting and switch of fiscal regime in New Zealand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 165-172.
    6. Raf Wouters & Michel Dombrecht, 2000. "Model-based inflation forecasts and monetary policy rules," Working Paper Research 01, National Bank of Belgium.
    7. P N Snowden & M A Salisu & N Taher, 2000. "Oiling the wheels: credit and monetary neutrality in Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 539748, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    8. F. Smets & R. Wouters, 1999. "The Exchange Rate and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Germany," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 35, Netherlands Central Bank.
    9. Jihene Bousrih, 2012. "Degree of openness and inflation targeting policy: model of a small open economy," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 232-246, July.
    10. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April.
    11. Paul Conway, 2000. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, September.
    12. Aaron Drew & L Christopher Plantier, 2000. "Interest rate smoothing in New Zealand and other dollar bloc countries," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    13. Chris Ryan & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    14. Chris Plantier & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "The Taylor Rule and its relevance to New Zealand monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 65, March.
    15. L Christopher Plantier & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    16. Yuong Ha, 2000. "Uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag: implications for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    17. Ben Hunt, 1999. "Inter-forecast monetary policy implementation: fixed-instrument versus MCI-based strategies," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/1, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    18. Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2005. "Reaction functions in a small open economy: What role for non-traded inflation?," Working Papers 2014-44, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Adrian Orr & Alasdair Scott & Bruce White, 1998. "The exchange rate and inflation targeting," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 61, September.
    20. Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt, 1998. "The Forecasting and Policy System: preparing economic projections," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    21. Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt, 1998. "The Forecasting and Policy System: stochastic simulations of the core model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    22. James Twaddle & David Hargreaves & Tim Hampton, 2006. "Other stabilisation objectives within an inflation targeting regime: Some stochastic simulation experiments," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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