IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/rbnkwp/0094.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty about Length of the Monetary Policy Transmission Lag: Implications for Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Ha, Yuong

    (Economics Department, Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

Using stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s macroeconomic model, this paper examines the implications for monetary policy of uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag. Uncertainty is examined from two perspectives. The first investigates the robustness of efficient inflation-forecast-based rules under transmission lag uncertainty. Robustness, in this paper, is measured by the variability of the stabilisation properties of policy rules. The results indicate that rules that are less aggressive and more forward looking are more robust than rules that are more aggressive and less forward looking. By using more-robust rules, policy makers are more likely to achieve outcomes that are closer to what they expect. However, while less aggressive and more forward-looking rules are more robust, the implication for monetary policy is less clear. Typically, these more-robust policy rules have higher absolute levels of inflation variability than less-robust rules. In other words, less-robust rules typically do a better job at controlling inflation regardless of the transmission lag and regardless of what the central bank believes the transmission lag to be. The second aspect asks, if the central bank is uncertain about the length of the transmission lag, is it better to overestimate or underestimate the lag? If the central bank overestimates the lag, it believes inflation is harder to control than it really is. As a result, policy responses tend to be stronger than would be the case if the central bank knew the truth. Underestimating the lag has the opposite effect – the central bank believes inflation is easier to control and policy responds less aggressively than would be the case if the central bank knew the truth. This result suggests that it is better to overestimate the transmission lag. By behaving as if inflation is harder to control, the central bank is able to counter inflationary pressures earlier and do a relatively better job at stabilising the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ha, Yuong, 1999. "Uncertainty about Length of the Monetary Policy Transmission Lag: Implications for Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 94, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0094
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.riksbank.com/upload/3528/WP_94.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January.
    2. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1996. "Monetary Policy as a Process of Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 689-702, September.
    3. Robert Amano & Donald Coletti & Tiff Macklem, 1998. "Monetary rules when economic behaviour changes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    4. Atish R. Ghosh & Paul R. Masson, 1988. "International Policy Coordination in a World with Model Uncertainty," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(2), pages 230-258, June.
    5. Andrew G Haldane, 1997. "Designing Inflation Targets," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew Haldane, 1999. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 157-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & Eileen Mauskopf & Peter A. Tinsley, 1990. "The transmission channels of monetary policy: how have they changed?," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Dec, pages 985-1008.
    8. Mankiw, N. Gregory (ed.), 1997. "Monetary Policy," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226503097, December.
    9. Ghosh, Atish R & Masson, Paul R, 1991. "Model Uncertainty, Learning, and the Gains from Coordination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 465-479, June.
    10. Patricia C. Mosser, 1992. "Changes in monetary policy effectiveness: evidence from large macroeconomic models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(Spr), pages 36-51.
    11. Drew, Aaron & Hunt, Benjamin, 2000. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 143-160.
    12. David Gruen & John Romalis & Naveen Chandra, 1999. "The Lags of Monetary Policy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(3), pages 280-294, September.
    13. Geoffrey Shuetrim & Christopher Thompson, 2003. "The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(246), pages 370-379, September.
    14. Adrian Orr & Alasdair Scott & Bruce White, 1998. "The exchange rate and inflation targeting," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 61, September.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rockett, Katharine E, 1988. "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policymakers Do Not Agree on the True Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 318-340, June.
    16. Paul Conway & Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt & Alasdair Scott, 1998. "Exchange rate effects and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a stochastic analysis using FPS," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/4, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    17. Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt, 1998. "The Forecasting and Policy System: stochastic simulations of the core model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    18. Gruen, David & Romalis, John & Chandra, Naveen, 1999. "The Lags of Monetary Policy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(230), pages 280-294, September.
    19. Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James H., 2002. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty In A Small Model Of The U.S. Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 85-110, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John C. Robertson, 2000. "Central bank forecasting: an international comparison," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 85(Q2), pages 21-32.
    2. By Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Korea: An Empirical Exploration," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(2), pages 1-5.
    3. Paul Conway, 2000. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, September.
    4. Mota, Paulo R. & Fernandes, Abel L.C., 2022. "Is the ECB already following albeit implicitly an average inflation targeting strategy?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 149-162.
    5. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
    6. L Christopher Plantier & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Paulo R. Mota & Abel L. C. Fernandes, 2019. "The Dynamic Adjustment Of Central Banks’ Target Interest Rate: The Case Of The Ecb," FEP Working Papers 613, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aaron Drew & L Christopher Plantier, 2000. "Interest rate smoothing in New Zealand and other dollar bloc countries," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Paul Conway, 2000. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, September.
    3. Drew, Aaron & Hunt, Benjamin, 2000. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 143-160.
    4. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    5. Benjamin Hunt & Peter Isard, 2003. "Some implications for monetary policy of uncertain exchange rate pass‐through," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 567-584, November.
    6. Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt, 1998. "The Forecasting and Policy System: preparing economic projections," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    8. Victor Gaiduch & Benjamin Hunt, 2000. "Inflation targeting under potential output uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. David Hargreaves, 1999. "SDS-FPS: a small demand-side version of the Forecasting and Policy System core model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    10. L Christopher Plantier & Dean Scrimgeour, 2002. "Estimating a Taylor Rule for New Zealand with a time-varying neutral real rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Ben Hunt & Adrian Orr, 1999. "Inter-forecast monetary policy implementation: responding to unexpected exchange rate movements," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, March.
    12. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Levin, Andrew T. & Williams, John C., 2003. "Robust monetary policy with competing reference models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 945-975, July.
    14. Kirdan Lees, 2004. "Uncertainty and the open economy: a view through two different lenses," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 235, Econometric Society.
    15. Isard, Peter & Laxton, Douglas & Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte, 2001. "Inflation targeting with NAIRU uncertainty and endogenous policy credibility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 115-148, January.
    16. Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt, 1998. "The Forecasting and Policy System: stochastic simulations of the core model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/6, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    17. Naveen Chandra & Ellis W. Tallman, 1997. "Financial aggregates as conditioning information for Australian output and inflation," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    18. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October.
    19. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April.
    20. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Ghosh, Atish R., 2016. "On the obstacles to international policy coordination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-40.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Transmission uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0094. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lena Löfgren (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbgovse.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.