IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mcm/sedapp/100.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Implications of Population Aging and Public Pensions

Author

Listed:
  • Malick Souare

Abstract

We develop a calibrated general equilibrium model of a small open economy to examine some macroeconomic and distributional effects of an aging population. The model features overlapping generations with a public pension system, asymmetric information in the labor market, and includes some households that are liquidity constrained. Our main results are as follows. First, by analyzing the consequences of population aging in one country without taking into account the extent of aging throughout the world, one may systematically misestimate the effect which aging may have on that country's living standards and its net foreign asset position. Second, the magnitude of the effect of an aging population on people's average living standards, both in the short run and in the long run, significantly depends on whether or not they are liquidity constrained. Third, whether increases in contribution rates to finance the public pension system (as the elderly dependency ratio rises) are imposed on workers or firms has little effect on the impact of aging on living standards; however, it does matter for the unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Malick Souare, 2003. "Macroeconomic Implications of Population Aging and Public Pensions," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 100, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/sedap/p/sedap100.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 120-125, May.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 2, pages 17-56, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Thomas Moutos & William Scarth, 2000. "Work-Sharing: an Efficiency-Wage Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 386, CESifo.
    5. Ríos-Rull José-Víctor, 2001. "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-48, May.
    6. Pissarides, Christopher A., 1998. "The impact of employment tax cuts on unemployment and wages; The role of unemployment benefits and tax structure," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-183, January.
    7. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Economic Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 1, McMaster University.
    8. Richard Black & David Rose, 1997. "Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM," Staff Working Papers 97-16, Bank of Canada.
    9. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Masson, Paul R & Bayoumi, Tamim & Samiei, Hossein, 1998. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 483-501, September.
    11. Ando,Albert & Guiso,Luigi & Visco,Ignazio (ed.), 1994. "Saving and the Accumulation of Wealth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521452083.
    12. Feldstein, Martin S, 1974. "Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(5), pages 905-926, Sept./Oct.
    13. Ana Castaneda & Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2003. "Accounting for the U.S. Earnings and Wealth Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(4), pages 818-857, August.
    14. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-732, August.
    15. Ambler, Steve, 1994. "Book review," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 567-579, December.
    16. Vincenzo Quadrini & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 1997. "Understanding the U.S. distribution of wealth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 21(Spr), pages 22-36.
    17. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    18. Ryan D. Edwards & Ronald D. Lee, 2001. "The fiscal impact of population change," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 46.
    19. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    20. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    21. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-293, June.
    22. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    23. T. Hutchison & I. Pellengahr & K. Podczeck & R. Noll & I. Vogelsang & B. Mitchell & S. Martin & J. Mairesse, 1994. "Book review," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 325-349, October.
    24. Søren Nielsen, 1994. "Social security and foreign indebtedness in a small open economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 47-63, March.
    25. Johnson, G.E. & Layard, P.R.G., 1987. "The natural rate of unemployment: Explanation and policy," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 921-999, Elsevier.
    26. Corneo, Giacomo & Marquardt, Marko, 2000. "Public pensions, unemployment insurance, and growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 293-311, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William Scarth, 2007. "A Note on Income Distribution and Growth," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 213, McMaster University.
    2. Jianmin Tang & Carolyn MacLeod, 2006. "Labour force ageing and productivity performance in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(2), pages 582-603, May.
    3. William Scarth, 2007. "A Note on Income Distribution and Growth," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 421, McMaster University.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/016, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Smetters, Kent, 1999. "Ricardian equivalence: long-run Leviathan," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 395-421, September.
    3. Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2008. "Population ageing and public pension reforms in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 863, European Central Bank.
    4. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Tax Policy, the Rate of Return, and Savings," NBER Working Papers 0995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rajnish Mehra & Facundo Piguillem & Edward C. Prescott, 2011. "Costly financial intermediation in neoclassical growth theory," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(1), pages 1-36, March.
    6. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    7. Willem H. Buiter, 2003. "James Tobin: An Appreciation of his Contribution to Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(491), pages 585-631, November.
    8. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2009. "Anticipated fiscal policy and adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 930-953, October.
    9. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption : Saving decisions : Testing the finite horizon model," Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1997_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. John P. Rust, 1989. "A Dynamic Programming Model of Retirement Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Aging, pages 359-404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Brunila, Anne, 1996. "Fiscal policy and private consumption: Saving decisions: Evidence from Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 28/1996, Bank of Finland.
    13. Bernheim, B. Douglas, 2002. "Taxation and saving," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 1173-1249, Elsevier.
    14. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Brunila, Anne, 1997. "Current income and private consumption: Saving decisions: Testing the finite horizon model," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/1997, Bank of Finland.
    16. Simon, András & Várpalotai, Viktor, 2001. "Eladósodás, kockázat és óvatosság [Optimal indebtedness in a small open economy showing precautionary behaviour]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 363-392.
    17. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 329-379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2007. "Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory," Working Papers 07-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    19. repec:eee:labchp:v:1:y:1986:i:c:p:305-355 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "The Ends of Four Big Inflations," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation: Causes and Effects, pages 41-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John B. Shoven & Avia Spivak, 1987. "Annuity Markets, Savings, and the Capital Stock," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in Pension Economics, pages 211-236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Summers, Lawrence H, 1984. "The After-Tax Rate of Return Affects Private Savings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 249-253, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population aging; general equilibrium model; public pension;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/demcmca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.