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Eladósodás, kockázat és óvatosság
[Optimal indebtedness in a small open economy showing precautionary behaviour]

  • Simon, András
  • Várpalotai, Viktor

A tanulmány a fogyasztói magatartás elméletének legújabb vonulatát, az úgynevezett óvatossági megtakarítás modelljét alkalmazza ahhoz, hogy következtetéseket vonjon le az egyes országok eladósodási politikájára vonatkozóan. A hagyományos modellek determinisztikus jövedelemvárakozások mellett elemezték a fogyasztók döntéseit. Ilyen feltevések mellett nem magyarázható meg kielégítően, hogy miért nem ,,bátrabbak" a gyorsan növekvő országok a külső hitelek felvételében. Ha figyelembe vesszük a jövedelem sztochasztikusságát, és feltesszük, hogy a fogyasztó fél a szélsőséges ingadozásoktól, akkor ,,tartalékol'" a bizonytalan jövőre, vagyis óvatosabb lesz, nem vesz fel annyi hitelt. Túl nagy többletet sem fog felhalmozni, mert a fogyasztó előnyben részesíti a jelenbeli fogyasztást a jövőbelivel szemben. Így kialakul egy optimális pénzügyi pozíció (kinnlevőség vagy adósság), amelyben egyensúlyban van a türelmetlenség (és/vagy gyors növekedés) követelte eladósodási indíték és az óvatosságból származó többletfelhalmozási motívum. Az egyensúly feltételeit és tulajdonságait fogalmazza meg a tanulmány modell segítségével. A tanulmány kiegészíti Darvas-Simon [1999] számításait, amennyiben elméleti megalapozását adja a számításokból adódó következtetéseknek.

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Article provided by Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation) in its journal Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences).

Volume (Year): XLVIII (2001)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 363-392

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Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:390
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