Approximating fixed-horizon forecasts using fixed-event forecasts
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
- Paul Hubert, 2013. "ECB projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," Post-Print hal-03399287, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03399287, HAL.
- Siklos, Pierre L., 2013.
"Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 218-231.
- Pierre L. Siklos, 2012. "Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts: An International Empirical Investigation," CAMA Working Papers 2012-42, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- D’Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2014.
"The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads – The times, they are a-changin,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 155-176.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2012. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads – the times, they are a-changin," MPRA Paper 40604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ehrmann, Michael & D'Agostino, Antonello, 2013. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads: the times, they are a-changin," Working Paper Series 1520, European Central Bank.
- Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2012.
"Effective Use of Survey Information in Estimating the Evolution of Expected Inflation,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 145-169, February.
- Sharon Kozicki & P. A. Tinsley, 2012. "Effective Use of Survey Information in Estimating the Evolution of Expected Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 145-169, February.
- de Haan, Leo & Hessel, Jeroen & van den End, Jan Willem, 2014. "Are European sovereign bonds fairly priced? The role of modelling uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 239-267.
- Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
- Paul Hubert, 2014.
"FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1381-1420, October.
- Paul Hubert, 2013. "FOMC forecasts as a focal point for private expectations," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2014. "FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations," Post-Print hal-03399408, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2014. "FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03399408, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
- Paul Hubert, 2013. "ECB projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "The effect of interest rate and communication shocks on private inflation expectations," Working papers wpaper122, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
- Lamla, Michael J. & Lein, Sarah M., 2014.
"The role of media for consumers’ inflation expectation formation,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 62-77.
- Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein, 2008. "The Role of Media for Consumers' Inflation Expectation Formation," KOF Working papers 08-201, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2014.
"Inflation uncertainty revisited: a proposal for robust measurement,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1497-1523, December.
- Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Elisabeth Wieland, 2011. "Inflation uncertainty revisited: A proposal for robust measurement," ifo Working Paper Series 111, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB, 1999-2006: Words and Deeds," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, September.
- Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971.
"Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "CHOWLIN: RATS procedure to distribute a series to a higher frequency using related series," Statistical Software Components RTS00036, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "DISAGGREGATE: RATS procedure to implement general disaggregation (interpolation/distribution) procedure," Statistical Software Components RTS00050, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Kortelainen, Mika & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2011. "Observed inflation forecasts and the new Keynesian macro model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 88-90, July.
- Heppke-Falk, Kirsten H. & Hüfner, Felix P., 2004. "Expected budget deficits and interest rate swap spreads - Evidence for France, Germany and Italy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,40, Deutsche Bundesbank.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019.
"From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts,"
Working Papers
1947, Banco de España.
- Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2020. "From Fixed-Event to Fixed-Horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-Horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Forecasts," Working Papers 1142, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Gergely Ganics & Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2019. "From fixed-event to fixed-horizon density forecasts: Obtaining measures of multi-horizon uncertainty from survey density forecasts," Economics Working Papers 1689, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Werner, Thomas, 2017. "The inflation risk premium in the post-Lehman period," Working Paper Series 2033, European Central Bank.
- Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Lamla, Michael J. & Wood, Andrew, 2019.
"The implications of central bank transparency for uncertainty and disagreement,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 222-240.
- Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Lamla, Michael J & Wood, Andrew, 2018. "The Implications of Central Bank Transparency for Uncertainty and Disagreement," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 23347, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Boonlert Jitmaneeroj & Michael Lamla, 2018. "The Implications of Central Bank Transparency for Uncertainty and Disagreement," KOF Working papers 18-445, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2020.
"Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations,"
VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics
224617, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2022. "Fundamental determinants of exchange rate expectations," Chemnitz Economic Papers 056, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology, revised Mar 2022.
- Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2018.
"Monetary Policy Shocks, Expectations, And Information Rigidities,"
Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(4), pages 2158-2176, October.
- Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, expectations and information rigidities," Chemnitz Economic Papers 019, Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology.
- Czudaj, Robert & Beckmann, Joscha, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, expectations and information rigidities," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181573, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Rossi, Barbara & Ganics, Gergely & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "From Fixed-event to Fixed-horizon Density Forecasts: Obtaining Measures of Multi-horizon Uncertainty from Survey Density Foreca," CEPR Discussion Papers 14267, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tatjana Dahlhaus & Julia Schaumburg & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2021.
"Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy,"
Staff Working Papers
21-4, Bank of Canada.
- Dalhaus, Tatjana & Schaumburg, Julia & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2021. "Networking the yield curve: implications for monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2532, European Central Bank.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2017. "Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the Euro Area and its individual member countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 41-62, August.
- Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2016.
"Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 59-63.
- Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2016. "Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy," Discussion Papers 31/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Heinisch, Katja & Behrens, Christoph & Döpke, Jörg & Foltas, Alexander & Fritsche, Ulrich & Köhler, Tim & Müller, Karsten & Puckelwald, Johannes & Reichmayr, Hannes, 2023. "The IWH Forecasting Dashboard: From forecasts to evaluation and comparison," IWH Technical Reports 1/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Tim Köhler & Jörg Döpke, 2023. "Will the last be the first? Ranking German macroeconomic forecasters based on different criteria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 797-832, February.
- Reifschneider, David & Tulip, Peter, 2019. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1564-1582.
- David Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017.
"Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors: The Federal Reserve's Approach,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp2017-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- David L. Reifschneider & Peter Tulip, 2017. "Gauging the Uncertainty of the Economic Outlook Using Historical Forecasting Errors : The Federal Reserve's Approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro & Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata, 2019. "Disagreement in inflation expectations: empirical evidence for Colombia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(40), pages 4411-4424, August.
- Michael P. Clements, 2020. "Are Some Forecasters’ Probability Assessments of Macro Variables Better Than Those of Others?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-16, May.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- James Yetman, 2018. "The perils of approximating fixed-horizon inflation forecasts with fixed-event forecasts," BIS Working Papers 700, Bank for International Settlements.
- Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.
- Winkelried, Diego, 2023. "Simple interpolations of inflation expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
- de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Vereda, Luciano & Araujo, Mateus de Azevedo, 2022. "What type of information calls the attention of forecasters? Evidence from survey data in an emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
- Feldkircher, Martin & Siklos, Pierre L., 2019.
"Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 217-241.
- Martin Feldkircher & Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "Global inflation dynamics and inflation expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2018-60, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times : Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
- Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
- Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
- Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017.
"Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data,"
European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.
- Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2016. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: recent evidence based on survey data," Working Paper Series 1945, European Central Bank.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_013 is not listed on IDEAS
- Tomasz Łyziak & Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times. Recent evidence from the European Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBP Working Papers 261, Narodowy Bank Polski.
- Bennani, Hamza, 2018.
"Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
- Hamza Bennani, 2018. "Media Coverage and ECB Policy-Making: Evidence from an Augmented Taylor Rule," Post-Print hal-01773570, HAL.
- Proietti, Tommaso, 2008. "Estimation of Common Factors under Cross-Sectional and Temporal Aggregation Constraints: Nowcasting Monthly GDP and its Main Components," MPRA Paper 6860, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christian Bauer & Sebastian Weber, 2016. "The Efficiency of Monetary Policy when Guiding Inflation Expectations," Research Papers in Economics 2016-14, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 655-680, October.
- Paul Hubert, 2011. "Central Bank Forecasts as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "The influence and policy signaling role of FOMC Forecasts," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03399827, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2013. "The influence and policy signaling role of FOMC forecasts," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "The influence and policy signaling role of FOMC Forecasts," Post-Print hal-03399827, HAL.
- Cimadomo, Jacopo & Claeys, Peter & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2016.
"How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 216-235.
- Jacopo Cimadomo & Peter Claeys & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2016. "How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?," IMF Working Papers 2016/100, International Monetary Fund.
- Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
- Yasutomo Murasawa & Roberto S. Mariano, 2004.
"Constructing a Coincident Index of Business Cycles Without Assuming a One-Factor Model,"
Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings
710, Econometric Society.
- Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2004. "Constructing a Coincident Index of Business Cycles without Assuming a One-factor Model," Working Papers 22-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Oct 2004.
- Juan Camilo Anzoátegui-Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis-Ciro, 2020. "Disagreements in Consumer Inflation Expectations: Empirical Evidence for a Latin American Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(2), pages 99-122, November.
- Stefan Gerlach & John Lewis, 2014.
"ECB Reaction Functions and the Crisis of 2008,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 137-158, March.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Lewis, John, 2011. "ECB Reaction Functions and the Crisis of 2008," CEPR Discussion Papers 8472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jacopo Cimadomo & Antonello D'Agostino, 2016.
"Combining Time Variation and Mixed Frequencies: an Analysis of Government Spending Multipliers in Italy,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1276-1290, November.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2015. "Combining time-variation and mixed-frequencies: an analysis of government spending multipliers in Italy," Working Paper Series 1856, European Central Bank.
- Antonello D’Agostino & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2015. "Combining time-variation and mixed-frequencies: an analysis of government spending multipliers in Italy," Working Papers 7, European Stability Mechanism.
More about this item
Keywords
survey expectations; forecast disagreement;JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-FOR-2016-08-21 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2016-08-21 (Macroeconomics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:282016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.