IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cje/issued/v50y2017i3p711-737.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The evolution of inflation expectations in Canada and the US

Author

Listed:
  • James Yetman

Abstract

We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecaster-level data for Canada and the US, we identify three key differences between the two countries. First, the average estimated anchor of US inflation forecasts has tended to decline gradually over time in rolling samples, from 3.4% for 19891998 to 2.2% for 20042013. By contrast, it has remained close to 2% since the mid-1990 for Canadian forecasts. Second, the variance of estimates of the long-run anchor is considerably lower for the panel of Canadian forecasters than US ones following Canada's adoption of inflation targets. And third, forecasters in Canada look much more alike than those in the US in terms of the weight that they place on the anchor. One explanation for these results is that an explicit inflation-targeting regime (Canada) provides for less uncertainty about future monetary policy actions than a monetary policy regime where there was no explicit numerical inflation target (the US before 2012) to anchor expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • James Yetman, 2017. "The evolution of inflation expectations in Canada and the US," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 711-737, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:50:y:2017:i:3:p:711-737
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economics.ca/cgi/xms?jab=v50n3/CJEv50n3p0711.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: Available to subscribers only. Alternative access through JSTOR and Ingenta.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jjieco:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:53-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43 Bank for International Settlements.
    3. James Yetman, 2018. "The perils of approximating fixed-horizon inflation forecasts with fixed-event forecasts," BIS Working Papers 700, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Hattori, Masazumi & Yetman, James, 2017. "The evolution of inflation expectations in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-68.
    5. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    6. Ken Miyajima & James Yetman, 2018. "Assessing inflation expectations anchoring for heterogeneous agents: analysts, businesses and trade unions," BIS Working Papers 759, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:50:y:2017:i:3:p:711-737. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Prof. Werner Antweiler). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ceaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.