IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/524.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Avdjiev
  • Robert Neil McCauley
  • Hyun Song Shin

Abstract

The traditional approach to international finance is to view capital flows as the financial counterpart to savings and investment decisions, assuming further that the GDP boundary defines both the decision-making unit and the currency area. This "triple coincidence" of GDP area, decision-making unit and currency area is an elegant simplification but misleads when financial flows are important in their own right. First, the neglect of gross flows, when only net flows are considered, can lead to misdiagnoses of financial vulnerability. Second, inattention to the effects of international currencies may lead to erroneous conclusions on exchange rate adjustment. Third, sectoral differences between corporate and official sector positions can distort welfare conclusions on the consequences of currency depreciation, as macroeconomic risks may be underestimated. This paper illustrates the pitfalls of the triple coincidence through a series of examples from the global financial system in recent years and examines alternative analytical frameworks based on balance sheets as the unit of analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Avdjiev & Robert Neil McCauley & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance," BIS Working Papers 524, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:524
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work524.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work524.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 1-23, May.
    2. Bing Xu & Honglin Wang & Adrian Van Rixtel, 2015. "Do banks extract informational rents through collateral?," BIS Working Papers 522, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Goodhart,Charles, 2011. "The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107007239.
    4. Claudio Borio & Harold James & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: a capital account historical perspective," BIS Working Papers 457, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    6. Stefan Avdjiev & Michael Chui & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Non-financial corporations from emerging market economies and capital flows," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    7. Stefan Avdjiev & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2012. "Rapid credit growth and international credit: Challenges for Asia," BIS Working Papers 377, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Stefan Avdjiev & Patrick McGuire & Philip Wooldridge, 2015. "Enhancements to the BIS international banking statistics," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Finocchiaro, Daria & Lombardo, Giovanni & Mendicino, Caterina & Weil, Philippe, 2018. "Optimal inflation with corporate taxation and financial constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 18-31.
    10. Robert E. Baldwin & Robert E. Lipsey & J. David Richardson, 1998. "Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bald98-1.
    11. Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2009. "Dollar appreciation in 2008: safe haven, carry trades, dollar shortage and overhedging," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    12. James Yetman, 2017. "The evolution of inflation expectations in Canada and the US," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(3), pages 711-737, August.
    13. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Joon-Ho Hahm & Hyun Song Shin & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Noncore Bank Liabilities and Financial Vulnerability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45, pages 3-36, August.
    15. Xavier Gabaix & Matteo Maggiori, 2015. "International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(3), pages 1369-1420.
    16. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2018. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 588-634.
    17. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476.
    18. Edwards, Sebastian & Frankel, Jeffrey A. (ed.), 2002. "Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226184944, December.
    19. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    20. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    21. Laurent Barras & Aytek Malkhozov, 2015. "Does variance risk have two prices? Evidence from the equity and option markets," BIS Working Papers 521, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Aliber, Robert Z., 1980. "The integration of the offshore and domestic banking system," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 509-526, October.
    23. Robert E. Lipsey & Magnus Blomstrom & Eric D. Ramstetter, 1998. "Internationalized Production in World Output," NBER Chapters, in: Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting, pages 83-138, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène & Truempler, Kai, 2012. "The financial crisis and the geography of wealth transfers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 266-283.
    25. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey & Nicolas Govillot, 2010. "Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    26. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    27. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    28. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "International Investors, the U.S. Current Account, and the Dollar," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 1-66.
    29. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    30. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Exchange Rate Appreciation, Capital Flows and Excess Liquidity: Adjustment and Effectiveness of Policy Responses," Research Studies, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number rp87.
    31. Fernando Avalos & Ramon Moreno & Tania Romero, 2015. "Leverage on the buy side," BIS Working Papers 517, Bank for International Settlements.
    32. Robert E. Lipsey & Irving B. Kravis, 1985. "The Competitive Position of U.S. Manufacturing Firms," NBER Working Papers 1557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2007. "Global monitoring with the BIS international banking statistics," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 176-204, Bank for International Settlements.
    34. Eli M Remolona & Ilhyock Shim, 2015. "The rise of regional banking in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    35. Stefan Afdjiev & Zsolt Kuti & Elod Takáts, 2012. "The euro area crisis and cross-border bank lending to emerging markets," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    36. Dong He & Robert N McCauley, 2012. "Eurodollar banking and currency internationalisation," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    37. Ingo Fender & Patrick McGuire, 2010. "Bank structure, funding risk and the transmission of shocks across countries: concepts and measurement," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    38. Kyuil Chung & Jong-Eun Lee & Elena Loukoianova & Hail Park & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Global liquidity through the lens of monetary aggregates," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 231-290.
    39. Naohiko Baba & Robert N McCauley & Srichander Ramaswamy, 2009. "US dollar money market funds and non-US banks," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    40. Dietrich Domanski & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2017. "The Hunt for Duration: Not Waving but Drowning?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 113-153, April.
    41. Claudio Borio & Robert McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2011. "Global credit and domestic credit booms," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    42. Branimir Gruic & Philip Wooldridge, 2015. "BIS debt securities statistics: a comparison of nationality data with external debt statistics," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Indicators to support monetary and financial stability analysis: data sources and statistical methodologies, volume 39, Bank for International Settlements.
    43. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? If Not, How Costly Is Adjustment Likely to Be?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 211-288.
    44. Marcel Fratzscher & Jean Imbs, 2009. "Finance, Institutions and Risk Sharing in International Portfolios," Post-Print hal-00612304, HAL.
    45. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    46. Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(2), pages 155-192, July.
    47. Robert E. Baldwin & Robert E. Lipsey & J. David Richardson, 1998. "Introduction to "Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting"," NBER Chapters, in: Geography and Ownership as Bases for Economic Accounting, pages 1-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. McCauley, Robert N. & Bénétrix, Agustín S. & McGuire, Patrick M. & von Peter, Goetz, 2019. "Financial deglobalisation in banking?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 116-131.
    2. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, May.
    3. Robert N McCauley, 2018. "The 2008 crisis: transpacific or transatlantic?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    4. Kumhof, Michael & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "How Does International Capital Flow?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15526, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2015. "Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously," BIS Working Papers 525, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2015. "Capital flows and the current account: Taking financing (more) seriously," BIS Working Papers 525, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Claudio Borio & Harold James & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: a capital account perspective," Globalization Institute Working Papers 204, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Claudio Borio & Harold James & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: a capital account historical perspective," BIS Working Papers 457, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. McCauley, Robert N., 2015. "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Robert N. McCauley, 2020. "The Global Domain of the Dollar: Eight Questions," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 421-429, December.
    11. Borio, Claudio, 2016. "On the centrality of the current account in international economics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 266-274.
    12. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    13. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    14. Bank for International Settlements, 2015. "Introduction to BIS statistics," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    15. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The international monetary and financial system: its Achilles heel and what to do about it," Globalization Institute Working Papers 203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Norring, Anni, 2022. "Taming the tides of capital: Review of capital controls and macroprudential policy in emerging economies," BoF Economics Review 1/2022, Bank of Finland.
    18. Dong He & Robert N McCauley, 2013. "Transmitting Global Liquidity to East Asia: Policy Rates, Bond Yields, Currencies and Dollar Credit," Working Papers 152013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    19. Avdjiev, Stefan & Binder, Stephan & Sousa, Ricardo, 2021. "External debt composition and domestic credit cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; global liquidity; international currencies;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:524. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.