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An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-term Unemployment

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In the years following 2009, long-term unemployment has been very elevated while inflation has fallen only moderately, raising the question of whether the long-term unemployed exert less downward pressure on prices than the short-term unemployed, perhaps because such potential workers are disconnected from the labor market. However, empirical evidence is mixed. This analysis demonstrates that the typical approach, using national data, is incapable of discriminating the inflationary pressure exerted by short and long-term unemployment because the series are highly correlated, making inference difficult given the short-span of data used in Phillips-curve estimation. However, application of more data, through the use of regional variation, can discriminate the independent influences of short-and long-term unemployment on price inflation. We present a model illustrating these issues and apply the model to data for U.S. metropolitan regions. We find that that short- and long-term unemployment exert equal downward pressure on price inflation.

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  • Kiley, Michael T., 2014. "An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-term Unemployment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1994. "Ranking, Unemployment Duration, and Wages," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(3), pages 417-434.
    2. Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "A Quantitative Comparison of Sticky-Price and Sticky-Information Models of Price Setting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 101-125, February.
    3. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173.
    4. Boivin, Jean & Kiley, Michael T. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "How Has the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Evolved Over Time?," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 8, pages 369-422 Elsevier.
    5. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 337-405.
    6. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    7. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Summers, Lawrence H, 1988. "Beyond the Natural Rate Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 182-187, May.
    10. John C. Williams, 2006. "Inflation persistence in an era of well-anchored inflation expectations," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue oct13.
    11. Katharine G. Abraham & Robert Shimer, 2001. "Changes in Unemployment Duration and Labor Force Attachment," NBER Working Papers 8513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arias, Maria A. & Gascon, Charles S. & Rapach, David E., 2016. "Metro business cycles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 90-108.
    2. David N. F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2014. "Labor Market Slack in the United Kingdom," Working Paper Series WP14-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    3. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2016. "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 5-18.
    4. Michael McLeay & Silvana Tenreyro, 2018. "Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 1815, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    6. Dotsey, Michael & Fujita, Shigeru & Stark, Tom, 2011. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:2:p:247-271 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel Wilson, 2018. "From NY to LA: A Look at the Wage Phillips Curve Using Cross-Geographical Data," 2018 Meeting Papers 1290, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel, 2017. "Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 247-271.
    10. Behera, Harendra & Wahi, Garima & Kapur, Muneesh, 2017. "Phillips Curve Relationship in India: Evidence from State-Level Analysis," MPRA Paper 80737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:47:y:2016:i:6:p:435-462 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Feroli, Michael & Hooper, Peter & Kashyap, Anil K & Schoenholtz, Kermit, 2017. "Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation's Simple Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 11925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Nathan R. Babb & Alan K. Detmeister, 2017. "Nonlinearities in the Phillips Curve for the United States : Evidence Using Metropolitan Data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Speigner, Bradley, 2014. "Long-term unemployment and convexity in the Phillips curve," Bank of England working papers 519, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short-term unemployment; phillips curve;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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