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The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Blanchard

Abstract

This paper reexamines the behavior of inflation and unemployment and reaches four conclusions: 1) The U.S. Phillips curve is alive and well (at least as well as in the past). 2) Inflation expectations however have become steadily more anchored. 3) The slope of the curve has substantially declined. But the decline dates back to the 1980s rather than to the crisis. 4) The standard error of the residual in the relation is large, especially in comparison to the low level of inflation. Each of the four conclusions presents challenges for the conduct of monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Blanchard, 2016. "The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 31-34, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:106:y:2016:i:5:p:31-34
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20161003
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    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/aer/ds/10605/P2016_1003_ds.zip
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael T. Kiley, 2015. "Low Inflation in the United States : A Summary of Recent Research," FEDS Notes 2015-11-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Eugenio Cerutti & Lawrence Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 21726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Phillips Curve and Inflation
      by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog on 2016-05-21 23:08:29

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "Model Uncertainty and the Direction of Fit of the Postwar U.S. Phillips Curve(s)," Working Papers 1702E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    2. repec:spr:izalpo:v:6:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40173-017-0087-z is not listed on IDEAS
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2017. "Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought," NBER Working Papers 24043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Yellen, Janet L., 2016. "Macroeconomic Research After the Crisis : a speech at "The Elusive 'Great' Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics" 60th annual economic conference sponsored by ," Speech 915, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. David L. Reifschneider, 2016. "Gauging the Ability of the FOMC to Respond to Future Recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-068, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. repec:aea:jecper:v:32:y:2018:i:1:p:81-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 16/126, International Monetary Fund.
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2018. "Friedman's Presidential Address in the Evolution of Macroeconomic Thought," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-96, Winter.
    9. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Feroli, Michael & Hooper, Peter & Kashyap, Anil K & Schoenholtz, Kermit, 2017. "Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation's Simple Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 11925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Guido Bulligan & Eliana Viviano, 2017. "Has the wage Phillips curve changed in the euro area?," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, December.
    11. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Aaron Mehrotra, 2018. "Deflation expectations," BIS Working Papers 699, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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