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Domestic and Global Output Gaps as Inflation Drivers: What Does the Phillips Curve Tell?

Author

Listed:
  • Martina Jašová
  • Richhild Moessner
  • Előd Takáts

Abstract

We study how domestic and global output gaps affect CPI inflation. We use a New-Keynesian Phillips curve framework which controls for nonlinear exchange rate movements for a panel of 26 advanced and 22 emerging economies covering the 1994Q1-2017Q4 period. We find broadly that both global and domestic output gaps are significant drivers of inflation both in the pre-crisis (1994-2008) and post-crisis (2008-2017) periods. Furthermore, after the crisis, in advanced economies the effect of the domestic output gap declines, while in emerging economies the effect of the global output gap declines. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of the New Keynesian Phillips curve in identifying the impact of global and domestic output gaps on inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Jašová & Richhild Moessner & Előd Takáts, 2018. "Domestic and Global Output Gaps as Inflation Drivers: What Does the Phillips Curve Tell?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7337, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7337
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output gaps; global factors; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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