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The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy

Listed author(s):
  • Stephen S. Poloz
Registered author(s):

    In this paper we explore the nexus between cross-border trade integration and monetary policy. We first review the evidence that trade liberalization has increased the degree of integration in North America and conclude that, while robust structural inferences remain elusive, there is sufficient supporting evidence for central banks to treat the issue seriously. The paper then discusses several channels by which increased integration might affect macroeconomic models. We introduce modifications to the Bank of Canada’s main policy model, ToTEM, to capture some of the impacts of integration suggested in the literature and generate stochastic simulations to compare versions of the model with low and high integration. The main conclusion is that increased integration may make it more challenging for central banks to control inflation, in the sense that doing so will require more variability in interest rates, exchange rates and the output gap.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/sdp2016-20.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Discussion Papers with number 16-20.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: 2016
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:16-20
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    234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada

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    Fax: 613 782-8874
    Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/

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    1. Silvana Tenreyro & Miklos Koren & Francesco Caselli, 2012. "Diversification through Trade," 2012 Meeting Papers 539, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra & Gordon H. Hanson, 2009. "Offshoring and Volatility: Evidence from Mexico's Maquiladora Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1664-1671, September.
    3. Wei Liao & Ana Maria Santacreu, 2012. "The Trade Comovement Puzzle and the Margins of International Trade," Working Papers 042012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    4. Jan De Loecker & Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Amit K. Khandelwal & Nina Pavcnik, 2016. "Prices, Markups, and Trade Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 445-510, March.
    5. José Dorich & Michael K. Johnston & Rhys R. Mendes & Stephen Murchison & Yang Zhang, 2013. "ToTEM II: An Updated Version of the Bank of Canada’s Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 100, Bank of Canada.
    6. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    7. Richard Blundell & Martin Browning & Costas Meghir, 1994. "Consumer Demand and the Life-Cycle Allocation of Household Expenditures," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 57-80.
    8. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Nina Pavcnik, 2007. "Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 39-82, March.
    9. Daniel Trefler, 2004. "The Long and Short of the Canada-U. S. Free Trade Agreement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 870-895, September.
    10. Alla Lileeva, 2008. "Trade liberalization and productivity dynamics: evidence from Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 360-390, May.
    11. Guvenen, Fatih, 2006. "Reconciling conflicting evidence on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: A macroeconomic perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1451-1472, October.
    12. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    13. Kei-Mu Yi, 2003. "Can Vertical Specialization Explain the Growth of World Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(1), pages 52-102, February.
    14. Chen, Hogan & Kondratowicz, Matthew & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2005. "Vertical specialization and three facts about U.S. international trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 35-59, March.
    15. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2015. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 621-646, May.
    16. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    17. Feenstra, Robert C, 1994. "New Product Varieties and the Measurement of International Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 157-177, March.
    18. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    19. Alla Lileeva & Daniel Trefler, 2010. "Improved Access to Foreign Markets Raises Plant-level Productivity…For Some Plants," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1051-1099.
    20. Paul Fenton & Stephen Murchison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Projection and Policy-Analysis Model," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Autumn), pages 5-18.
    21. repec:pri:cepsud:231deloecker is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison, 2006. "ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model," Technical Reports 97, Bank of Canada.
    23. Michael Francis & Louis Morel, 2015. "The Slowdown in Global Trade," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2015(Spring), pages 13-25.
    24. McCalman, Phillip & Spearot, Alan, 2013. "Why trucks jump: Offshoring and product characteristics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 82-95.
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