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The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains

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  • Auer, Raphael
  • Borio, Claudio
  • Filardo, Andrew J

Abstract

Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global economic slack influences domestic inflation. In particular, we document the extent to which the growth in GVCs explains the established empirical correlation between global economic slack and national inflation rates, both across countries and over time. Accounting for the role of GVCs, we also find that the conventional trade-based measures of openness used in previous studies are poor proxies for this transmission channel. The results support the hypothesis that as GVCs expand, direct and indirect competition among economies increases, making domestic inflation more sensitive to the global output gap. This can affect the trade-offs that central banks face when managing inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Auer, Raphael & Borio, Claudio & Filardo, Andrew J, 2017. "The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 11905, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11905
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Raphael A. Auer & Andrei A. Levchenko & Philip Sauré, 2017. "International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages," Working Papers 2017-03, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Pierpaolo Benigno & Ester Faia, 2016. "Globalization, Pass-Through, and Inflation Dynamics," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(4), pages 263-306, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Benoit Mojon & Xavier Ragot, 2018. "The labor supply of baby-boomers and low-flation," Sciences Po publications 9, Sciences Po.
    2. Raphael A. Auer & Andrei A. Levchenko & Philip Sauré, 2017. "International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages," Working Papers 2017-03, Swiss National Bank.
    3. S. Béreau & V. Faubert & K. Schmidt, 2018. "Explaining and Forecasting Euro Area Inflation: the Role of Domestic and Global Factors," Working papers 663, Banque de France.
    4. Gregor Bäurle & Matthias Gubler & Diego R. Känzig, 2017. "International inflation spillovers - the role of different shocks," Working Papers 2017-07, Swiss National Bank.
    5. repec:pal:buseco:v:52:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s11369-017-0035-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:bfr:rueban:2018:56 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global value chain; globalisation; inflation; input-ouput linkages; international inflation synchronisation; monetary policy; Phillips curve; production structure; Supply Chain;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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