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Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Bianchi

    (Duke University)

  • Andrea Civelli

    (University of Arkansas)

Abstract

According to the Globalization Hypothesis, global economic slack should progressively replace the domestic output gap in driving inflation as globalization increases. We investigate the empirical evidence in favor of this prediction by using a Time-varying VAR. Two main results emerge from the analysis: First, global slack is found to affect the dynamics of inflation in many countries, yet its influence did not become stronger over time. Second, a panel analysis that exploits the cross-section characteristics of our dataset shows that globalization, measured in terms of trade and financial openness, is positively related to the effects of global slack on inflation. We conclude that integration in the global economy is in fact important, but globalization has not yet induced changes in openness large enough to justify significant brakes in inflation dynamics. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Bianchi & Andrea Civelli, 2015. "Globalization and Inflation: Evidence from a Time Varying VAR," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 406-433, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:13-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2014.07.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    2. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2018:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    4. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106, September.
    5. Claudio Borio, 2016. "Revisiting Three Intellectual Pillars of Monetary Policy," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 213-238, Spring/Su.
    6. Raphael A. Auer & Andrei A. Levchenko & Philip Sauré, 2017. "International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages," Working Papers 2017-03, Swiss National Bank.
    7. Raphael A. Auer & Claudio Borio & Andrew Filardo, 2017. "The Globalisation of Inflation: The Growing Importance of Global Value Chains," CESifo Working Paper Series 6387, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. repec:eee:dyncon:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:46-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Stefan Laseen & Marzie Taheri Sanjani, 2016. "Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?," IMF Working Papers 16/126, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Pym Manopimoke, 2015. "Globalization and International Inflation Dynamics: The Role of the Global Output Gap," PIER Discussion Papers 8., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    11. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    12. Arpita Chatterjee, 2014. "Globalization and Monetary Policy Comovement: Evidence from G-7 Countries," Discussion Papers 2014-19, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    13. Budnik, Katarzyna & Bochmann, Paul, 2017. "Capital and liquidity buffers and the resilience of the banking system in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2120, European Central Bank.
    14. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2016. "Monetary–fiscal policy interaction and fiscal inflation: A tale of three countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 158-184.
    15. Szafranek, Karol, 2017. "Flattening of the New Keynesian Phillips curve: Evidence for an emerging, small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 334-348.
    16. Mikolajun, Irena & Lodge, David, 2016. "Advanced economy inflation: the role of global factors," Working Paper Series 1948, European Central Bank.
    17. Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "The global component of inflation volatility," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1170, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Ahmad, Saad & Civelli, Andrea, 2016. "Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 283-304.
    19. Güneş Kamber & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Global Factors and Trend Inflation," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2018/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. repec:pal:buseco:v:52:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s11369-017-0035-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Andrea Civelli, 2016. "Excess Returns, Average Returns and the Adjustment Mechanism of the External Position of a Country," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 226-252, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalization; Inflation; Time-variation; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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