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Diversification through trade

Author

Listed:
  • Caselli, Francesco
  • Koren, Miklos
  • Lisicky, Milan
  • Tenreyro, Silvana

Abstract

A widely held view is that openness to international trade leads to higher GDP volatility, as trade increases specialization and hence exposure to sector-specific shocks. We revisit the common wisdom and argue that when country-wide shocks are important, openness to international trade can lower GDP volatility by reducing exposure to domestic shocks and allowing countries to diversify the sources of demand and supply across countries. Using a quantitative model of trade, we assess the importance of the two mechanisms (sectoral specialization and cross-country diversification) and provide a new answer to the question of whether and how international trade affects economic volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Caselli, Francesco & Koren, Miklos & Lisicky, Milan & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2015. "Diversification through trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65009, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:65009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sourafel Girma & Sandra Lancheros & Alejandro Riaño, 2016. "Global Engagement and Returns Volatility," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 78(6), pages 814-833, December.
    2. repec:eee:dyncon:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:31-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lucio Picci & Luca Savorelli, 2013. "The Technological Specialization of Countries: An Analysis of Patent Data," Discussion Paper Series, Department of Economics 201301, Department of Economics, University of St. Andrews.
    4. Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Fernando Parro & Lorenzo Caliendo, 2013. "The impact of regional and sectoral productivity changes on the U.S. economy," Working Paper 13-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    5. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2013. "Technological Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 378-414, February.
    6. repec:oup:qjecon:v:132:y:2017:i:2:p:921-962. is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nitya Pandalai Nayar & Aaron Flaaen & Christoph Boehm, 2015. "Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake," 2015 Meeting Papers 383, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Urška Čede & Bogdan Chiriacescu & Péter Harasztosi & Tibor Lalinsky & Jaanika Meriküll, 2018. "Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 347-376, May.
    9. Federico Esposito, 2016. "Risk Diversification and International Trade," 2016 Meeting Papers 302, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Adina Ardelean & Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Laura Puzzello, 2017. "Industry Volatility and International Trade," Studies in Economics 1709, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    11. Comerford, David & Rodríguez Mora, José Vicente, 2014. "Regions are not countries: a new approach to the border effect," CEPR Discussion Papers 9967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Javier Cravino & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2017. "Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(2), pages 921-962.
    13. Baran Doda, Simon Quemin, Luca Taschini, 2017. "A theory of gains from trade in multilaterally linked ETSs," GRI Working Papers 275, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    14. Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague & Wang, Zheng & Yu, Zhihong, 2016. "Volatility and diversification of exports: Firm-level theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 216-247.
    15. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    16. Stephen S. Poloz, 2016. "The Paul Storer Memorial Lecture—Cross-Border Trade Integration and Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 16-20, Bank of Canada.
    17. repec:eee:eecrev:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:18-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Burgess, Robin & Donaldson, Dave, 2012. "Can openness to trade reduce income volatility? Evidence from colonial India's famine era," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54255, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Marta Arespa, 2015. "Macroeconomic Volatility And International Integration," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(4), pages 393-410, October.
    20. Treb Allen & David Atkin, 2016. "Volatility and the Gains from Trade," NBER Working Papers 22276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. repec:eee:ecmode:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:109-121 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2015. "Dispersion in macroeconomic volatility between the core and periphery of the international trade network," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-08, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    23. Doda, Baran & Taschini, Luca, 2017. "Carbon dating: when is it beneficial to link ETSs?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68379, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    24. Dany Bahar & Rodrigo Wagner & Ernesto Stein & Samuel Rosenow, 2017. "The Birth and Growth of New Export Clusters: Which Mechanisms Drive Diversification?," CID Working Papers 86a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade; diversification; GDP;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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