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Growth volatility and trade: evidence from the 1967-1975 closure of the Suez Canal

Author

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  • Parinduri, Rasyad

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of trade on economic growth and growth volatility. Using the 1967-1975 closure of the Suez Canal as an instrument for trade, I find that trade leads to higher economic growth, and lower probability of recession or economic slowdown. There is no evidence that trade reduces growth volatility, however.

Suggested Citation

  • Parinduri, Rasyad, 2012. "Growth volatility and trade: evidence from the 1967-1975 closure of the Suez Canal," MPRA Paper 39040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39040
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39040/1/MPRA_paper_39040.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Feyrer, 2009. "Distance, Trade, and Income - The 1967 to 1975 Closing of the Suez Canal as a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 15557, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Acemoglu, Daron & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 1997. "Was Prometheus Unbound by Chance? Risk, Diversification, and Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 709-751, August.
    3. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    4. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    5. Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2008. "Output Volatility and Openness to Trade: a Reassessment," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2008), pages 105-152, September.
    6. Mona Haddad & Jamus Jerome Lim & Cosimo Pancaro & Christian Saborowski, 2013. "Trade openness reduces growth volatility when countries are well diversified," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(2), pages 765-790, May.
    7. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    8. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2011. "Multiproduct Firms and Trade Liberalization," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(3), pages 1271-1318.
    9. Harrison, Ann & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2010. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy for Developing Countries," Handbook of Development Economics, Elsevier.
    10. John Romalis, 2007. "Market Access, Openness and Growth," NBER Working Papers 13048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Caselli, Francesco & Koren, Miklos & Lisicky, Milan & Tenreyroy, Silvana, 2015. "Diversification through trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86293, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Silvana Tenreyro & Miklos Koren & Francesco Caselli, 2012. "Diversification through Trade," 2012 Meeting Papers 539, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; volatility; trade; IV method;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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