International Trade and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies
This paper proposes a new channel through which international trade affects macroeconomic volatility. We study a multi-country model with heterogeneous firms that are subject to idiosyncratic firm-specific shocks. When the distribution of firm size follows a power law with exponent sufficiently close to -1, the idiosyncratic shocks to large Þrms have an impact on aggregate volatility. Opening to trade increases the importance of large Þrms to the economy, thus raising macroeconomic volatility. We next explore the quantitative properties of the model calibrated to data for the 50 largest economies in the world. Our simulation exercise shows that the contribution of trade to aggregate ßuctuations depends strongly on country size: in an economy such as the U.S., that accounts for one-third of world GDP, international trade increases volatility by about 3.5%. By contrast, trade increases aggregate volatility by some 30% in a small open economy, such as Belgium or Poland. The model performs well in matching the elasticity of macroeconomic volatility with respect to country size observed in cross-country data.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009.
"Trade Openness and Volatility,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
- Andrei A. Levchenko & Julian di Giovanni, 2008. "Trade Openness and Volatility," IMF Working Papers 08/146, International Monetary Fund.
- Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2006. "Trade Openness and Volatility," Development Working Papers 219, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
- Andrew Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter Schott, 2003.
"Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics,"
IFS Working Papers
W03/10, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter K. Schott, 2003. "Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter K. Schott, 2003. "Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm357, Yale School of Management.
- Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter K. Schott, 2003. "Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms and Industry Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0585, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter K. Schott, 2003. "Falling trade costs, heterogeneous firms and industry dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20027, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter K. Schott, 2003. "Falling Trade Costs, Heterogeneous Firms, and Industry Dynamics," Working Paper Series WP03-4, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Gadi Barlevy, 2003.
"The cost of business cycles under endogenous growth,"
Working Paper Series
WP-03-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 964-990, September.
- Gadi Barlevy, 2003. "The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 9970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Costas Arkolakis, 2010.
"Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1151 - 1199.
- Costas Arkolakis, 2008. "Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 14214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2007.
"Do Sunk Costs of Exporting Matter for Net Export Dynamics?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 122(1), pages 289-336, 02.
- George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2005. "Do sunk costs of exporting matter for net export dynamics?," Working Papers 05-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2009.
"The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Canning, D. & Amaral, L. A. N. & Lee, Y. & Meyer, M. & Stanley, H. E., 1998. "Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 335-341, September.
- Stephane Pallage & Michel A. Robe, 2003. "On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 677-698, 05.
- Muge Adalet, 2009. "Multi-Product Exporters and Product Turnover Behaviour of New Zealand Exporters," Treasury Working Paper Series 09/01, New Zealand Treasury.
- Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:585. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (FSPP Webmaster)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.