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The global welfare impact of China: trade integration and technological change

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Abstract

This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a quantitative Ric a rdian-Heckscher-Ohlin model implemented on 75 countries. We simulate two alternative productivity growth scenarios: a balanced one in which China's productivity grows at the sam e rate in each sector, and an unbalanced one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004), the large majority of countries in the sample, including the developed ones, experience an order of magnitude larger welfare gains when China's productivity growth is biased towards its comparative disadvantage sectors. We demonstrate both analytically and quantitatively that this fnding is driven by the inherently mult ilateral nature of world trade. As a separate but related exercise we quantify the worldwide welfare gains from China's trade integration.

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  • Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Jing Zhang, 2013. "The global welfare impact of China: trade integration and technological change," Working Paper Series WP-2013-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2013-08
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production (Economic theory); technological innovations; welfare;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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