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Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Giovannini
  • Stefan Hohberger
  • Robert Kollmann
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

The trade balances of the Euro Area (EA) and of the U.S. have improved markedly after the Global Financial Crisis. This paper quantifies the drivers of EA and U.S. economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated (1999-2017) three-region (U.S., EA, rest of world) DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities. In the model, commodity prices reflect global demand and supply conditions. The paper highlights the key contribution of the post-crisis collapse in commodity prices for the EA and U.S. trade balance reversal. Aggregate demand shocks originating in Emerging Markets too had a significant impact on EA and U.S. trade balances. The broader lesson of this paper is that Emerging Markets and commodity shocks are major drivers of advanced countries? trade balances and terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Giovannini & Stefan Hohberger & Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Lukas Vogel, 2018. "Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks," Globalization Institute Working Papers 344, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:344
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp344
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    Cited by:

    1. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    2. Mariam Camarero Author-X-Name-Mariam & Josep Lluís Carrión-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," Working Papers 2005, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    3. Robert Kollmann, 2020. "Liquidity Traps in a Monetary Union," Working Papers ECARES 2020-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Cardani, Roberta & Hohberger, Stefan & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models," Working Papers 2020-05, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    5. Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a world economy," CAMA Working Papers 2021-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    7. Werner Roeger & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Innovations: Transmission Dynamics of Persistent Demand and Technology Shocks in a Macro Model," EIIW Discussion paper disbei300, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    8. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Effects of Covid-19 on Euro Area GDP and Inflation: Demand vs. Supply Disturbances," MPRA Paper 108285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 7338, CESifo.
    10. Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "Financial spillover and global risk in a multi-region model of the world economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 185-218.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EA and U.S. external adjustment; commodity markets; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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