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Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Massimo Giovannini
  • Stefan Hohberger
  • Robert Kollmann
  • Lucas Vogel
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger

Abstract

The trade balances of the Euro Area (EA) and of the US have improved markedly after the Global Financial Crisis. This paper quantifies the drivers of EA and US economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated (1999-2017) three-region (US, EA, rest of world) DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities. In the model, commodity prices reflect global demand and supply conditions. The paper highlights the key contribution of the post-crisis collapse in commodity prices for the EA and US trade balance reversal. Aggregate demand shocks originating in Emerging Markets too had a significant impact on EA and US trade balances. The broader lesson of this paper is that Emerging Markets and commodity shocks are major drivers of advanced countries’ trade balances and terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Giovannini & Stefan Hohberger & Robert Kollmann & Lucas Vogel & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger, 2018. "Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks," Working Papers ECARES 2018-21, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/276452
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    2. Cardani, Roberta & Hohberger, Stefan & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?," MPRA Paper 102469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mariam Camarero Author-X-Name-Mariam & Josep Lluís Carrión-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," Working Papers 2005, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    4. Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "Financial spillover and global risk in a multi-region model of the world economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 185-218.
    5. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    6. Werner Roeger & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Innovations: Transmission Dynamics of Persistent Demand and Technology Shocks in a Macro Model," EIIW Discussion paper disbei300, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    7. Robert Kollmann, 2020. "Liquidity traps in a monetary union," CAMA Working Papers 2020-75, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a world economy," CAMA Working Papers 2021-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Effects of Covid-19 on Euro Area GDP and Inflation: Demand vs. Supply Disturbances," MPRA Paper 108285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices And Missing (Dis)Inflation In The Euro Area," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/947, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EA and US external adjustment; commodity markets; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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