IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eca/wpaper/2013-325393.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Effects of Covid-19 on Euro Area GDP and Inflation: Demand vs. Supply Disturbances

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Kollmann

Abstract

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of the Covid-19 epidemic on Euro Area (EA) GDP and inflation, using a stylized New Keynesian model. Covid is interpreted as a combination of aggregate demand and aggregate supply disturbances. Offsetting aggregate demand and supply changes are shown to account for the stability of EA inflation, in the face of Covid. The evidence presented here indicates that Covid-induced aggregate demand and supply shifts were persistent. An aggregate supply contraction is identified as the dominant force driving the sharp fall of EA GDP in 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Effects of Covid-19 on Euro Area GDP and Inflation: Demand vs. Supply Disturbances," Working Papers ECARES 2021-12, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/325393
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/325393/3/2021-12-KOLLMANN-effects.pdf
    File Function: Œuvre complète ou partie de l'œuvre
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    2. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Jess Benhabib & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Multiple Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 167-186, March.
    3. Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2020. "The Scars of Supply Shocks," Working Papers 1214, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Kollmann, Robert, 2008. "Welfare-Maximizing Operational Monetary And Tax Policy Rules," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 112-125, April.
    5. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    6. Massimo Giovannini & Stefan Hohberger & Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Lukas Vogel, 2019. "Euro Area & US External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices & Emerging Market Shocks," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 106, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. S Borağan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Frank Schorfheide, 2018. "Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB: A Tale of Two Countries," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 87-118.
    8. Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a monetary union," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1581-1603.
    9. Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Kollmann, Robert & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2019. "Euro Area and US external adjustment: The role of commodity prices and Emerging Market shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 183-205.
    10. Hohberger, Stefan & Priftis, Romanos & Vogel, Lukas, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    12. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    13. Karel R. S. M. Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in an Expectations-Driven Liquidity Trap," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1637-1667.
    14. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    15. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "A shadow rate New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Kollmann, Robert, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of nominal exchange rate regimes: new insights into the role of price dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 275-292, March.
    17. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "The exchange rate in a dynamic-optimizing business cycle model with nominal rigidities: a quantitative investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 243-262, December.
    18. Serdar Kabaca & Renske Maas & Kostas Mavromatis & Romanos Priftis, 2020. "Optimal quantitative easing in a monetary union," DNB Working Papers 697, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    19. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2022. "Is there a zero lower bound? The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 885-907.
    20. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    21. Robert Kollmann, 2004. "Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union: The Role of Trade Openness," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 289-301, 04/05.
    22. Arifovic, Jasmina & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2018. "Learning to live in a liquidity trap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 120-136.
    23. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: The role of money and nominal rigidities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1547-1583, October.
    24. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary policy rules in the open economy: effects on welfare and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 989-1015, July.
    25. Marius Clemens & Werner Röger, 2021. "Temporary VAT Reduction during the Lockdown," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    26. Clemens, Marius & Röger, Werner, 2021. "Temporary VAT Reduction during the Lockdown - Evidence from Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242459, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    27. Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger & Jan in ’t Veld, 2020. "The COVID19-Pandemic in the EU: Macroeconomic Transmission and Economic Policy Response," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 127, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Sapir, 2021. "The Economic Shock of the Health Crisis in 2020: Comparing the Scale of Governments Support," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(6), pages 579-592, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a monetary union," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1581-1603.
    2. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Kollmann, Robert, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of nominal exchange rate regimes: new insights into the role of price dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 275-292, March.
    4. Kollmann, Robert, 2020. "Global Liquidity Traps," MPRA Paper 102324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kollmann, Robert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kollmann, Robert, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules in a Two-Country World," MPRA Paper 70347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lansing, Kevin J., 2021. "Endogenous forecast switching near the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-169.
    8. Eggertsson, Gauti B. & Singh, Sanjay R., 2019. "Log-linear approximation versus an exact solution at the ZLB in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 21-43.
    9. Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2021. "The Euro Area's pandemic recession: A DSGE interpretation," Working Papers 2021-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    10. Jarociński, Marek & Maćkowiak, Bartosz, 2018. "Monetary-fiscal interactions and the euro area's malaise," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-266.
    11. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido, 2003. "Rule-of-Thumb Consumers and the Design of Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 104, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    12. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    13. Jeffrey R. Campbell, 2014. "Quantitative Easing in Joseph's Egypt with Keynesian Producers," Working Paper Series WP-2014-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    14. Holden, Thomas, 2016. "Existence and uniqueness of solutions to dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," EconStor Preprints 130142, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    16. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:162:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Jesper Lindé & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "Should we use linearized models to calculate fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 937-965, November.
    18. Yasuo Hirose, 2008. "Equilibrium Indeterminacy and Asset Price Fluctuation in Japan: A Bayesian Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 967-999, August.
    19. Ludger Linnemann & Andreas Schabert, 2004. "Net foreign assets, interest rate policy, and macroeconomic stability," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 54, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    20. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep, 2019. "Inflation targeting and liquidity traps under endogenous credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 48-62.
    21. Ali Dib, 2011. "Monetary Policy in Estimated Models of Small Open and Closed Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 769-796, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid; real activity; inflation; aggregate demand; aggregate supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/325393. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/arulbbe.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Pauwels (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/arulbbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.